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"We've said it before, and we'll say it again: A party running away from a president never works. One, because the party already owns the president. And two, because that running away alienates many of the voters who elected -- and then re-elected -- him. In other words, if the Democratic Party wants to energize its voters, is treating the head of the party like a pariah the best way to do that? Bottom line: It's just demoralizing, and it creates a negative feedback loop."
Said Brown: "I wouldn't mind being mayor of Oakland. But I don't know, when I'm 80 and a half, whether I'll have the same appetite... I don't want to foreclose my options for four years from now."
"Outside groups continue to flood the state with ads and accusations, forcing Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis to keep scrambling for dollars in the campaign's final two weeks. Money spent or committed in the race is poised to top $103 million, according to public records and interviews with donors. Three-quarters of it comes from party and interest groups. More than $22 million is dark money from groups that don't disclose their donors."
"The party last week put $1 million into the contest for a GOP-held seat in Georgia, attempting to capitalize on polls now shifting in its favor, as it also makes a play against long odds to hold its own seat in South Dakota with another $1 million in spending."
"Some 8,000 people turned out for the event, held in a noisy school gymnasium. But a steady stream of people walked out while he spoke, and a heckler interrupted his remarks."
Summerville "has been charged with stalking and assault in separate incidents involving his neighbor."
"Senate GOP aides say that's the message from the leader, who could face opposition from conservative lawmakers who want to block any non-emergency measures in the window between Election Day and the start of the new Congress in January."
Key fidings: Two-thirds of likely voters said they feel that the United States has lost control of its major challenges. Only 36 percent said the country is "in a good position to meet its economic and national security" hurdles.
"Court papers filed by his estranged wife, Lolita, claim that the Democratic congressman failed to pay for repairs for the 5,300-square-foot Orlando house where she is living with their four children. The roof is leaking, broken windows are allowing rain to get inside and the house has a significant mold problem because of the moisture, Lolita Grayson said in the papers filed at the Orange County Courthouse. She also said the congressman cut off her credit cards, even though he has been the sole financial provider during their 24 years of marriage."
"The FiveThirtyEight model relies mostly on polls, and without polls, the forecast's accuracy could suffer. So we looked into it. Fortunately, this weekend was an aberration. We're getting fewer polls than we did in 2010, but we're not getting way fewer polls."
"The survey is yet more evidence that Democratic voters are tuning out the midterms. Democrats carried a 10-point lead among low-interest voters, who the party is trying to reach and motivate with vigorous turnout operations across the country. Republicans carried a 10-point lead in the new survey among voters who said they were highly interested in the election."
-- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), quoted by the Washington Post.
Wrote pollster Cornell Belcher: "African-American surge voters came out in force in 2008 and 2012, but they are not well positioned to do so again in 2014. In fact, over half aren't even sure when the midterm elections are taking place."
"When Romney is excluded from the race, his supporters scatter, adding no clarity to the GOP free-for-all. In that scenario former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul have 12 or 13 percent support from leaned Republicans who are registered to vote. All others have support in the single digits."
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead with 64% support.
"And then, uniquely, there is Seth W. Moulton, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the Sixth Congressional District, a former Marine who saw fierce combat for months and months in Iraq. But Moulton chose not to publicly disclose that he was twice decorated for heroism until pressed by the Globe."
-- GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, quoted by the New York Times, on the battleground states.
-- Edwin Edwards, quoted by the Financial Times, on his wife who is 51 years younger than him.
"Not an actual woman. According to Buzzfeed, the black woman who gazes at Corbett was Photoshopped from a stock picture."
"The law, enacted in 2011, requires voters seeking to cast their ballots at the polls to present photo identification like a Texas driver's or gun license, a military ID or a passport."
"From a practical standpoint, this is good news for those of you who don't like where things have headed lately: in midterms, Senate polling errors are five times larger than in Presidential years. There is bad news too: the error can go in either direction, and a GOP blowout is also possible."
"Reports filed with the Federal Communications Commission show Gillespie's campaign cancelling or drastically reducing the amount of money it plans to spend on television ads in coming days. At the same time, political operatives who track television advertising said Thursday that Gillespie does not have ads reserved in the final push toward the Nov. 4 elections."
"Lately, Mrs. Clinton has spiced her campaign-trail speeches with targeted criticism of business--notable given that some liberals are suspicious of the Clinton family for accepting hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate donations and speaking fees. Those concerns could prompt a primary challenge from the political left."
"In the highest-level case, the department's inspector general found that senior State Department officials declared an allegation that the U.S. Ambassador to Belgium had solicited a prostitute in a public park as a 'management issue.' The move effectively halted an investigation by the department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security."
October 20, 2014
Democrats Running Away from Obama Won't Work
First Read: "Our latest NBC/WSJ/Annenberg poll is the latest survey to show Republicans with an advantage (49%-44% among likely voters) heading into the Nov. 4 midterms. And once again, the GOP holds the enthusiasm edge: 42% of all Republican voters say they're more enthusiastic than usual, versus just 34% for Democrats. And if Republicans run the table in the all the close races - similar to how Democrats ran the table in all of the toss-up contests in 2006 - there is going to be a tremendous amount of second-guessing about the Democratic candidates keeping their distance from Obama.""We've said it before, and we'll say it again: A party running away from a president never works. One, because the party already owns the president. And two, because that running away alienates many of the voters who elected -- and then re-elected -- him. In other words, if the Democratic Party wants to energize its voters, is treating the head of the party like a pariah the best way to do that? Bottom line: It's just demoralizing, and it creates a negative feedback loop."
Brown Won't Rule Out Running for Mayor Again
California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) "has ruled out a run for president in 2016. But he declined to rule out another bid for Oakland mayor," the Los Angeles Times reports.Said Brown: "I wouldn't mind being mayor of Oakland. But I don't know, when I'm 80 and a half, whether I'll have the same appetite... I don't want to foreclose my options for four years from now."
North Carolina Showdown Could Be Most Expensive Ever
"From the Koch brothers and Art Pope to George Soros and Michael Bloomberg, wealthy donors are making North Carolina's U.S. Senate race one of America's first $100 million contests," the Charlotte Observer reports."Outside groups continue to flood the state with ads and accusations, forcing Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis to keep scrambling for dollars in the campaign's final two weeks. Money spent or committed in the race is poised to top $103 million, according to public records and interviews with donors. Three-quarters of it comes from party and interest groups. More than $22 million is dark money from groups that don't disclose their donors."
The Divided States of America
NBC News: "The dominant political story heading into the Nov. 4 midterm elections isn't control of the U.S. Senate, or President Obama's approval ratings, or the party that captures the most governor's mansions across the nation. Instead, it's that this country - long known for its combative politics, especially before an election - is more divided today than it has been in decades. And it's likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future."
Democrats Back Long-Shot Candidates
"Democrats, worried as polls show their chances of retaining control of the Senate dwindling, are plowing money into long-shot races in unexpected states as embattled incumbents elsewhere seem to be slipping behind," the Wall Street Journal reports."The party last week put $1 million into the contest for a GOP-held seat in Georgia, attempting to capitalize on polls now shifting in its favor, as it also makes a play against long odds to hold its own seat in South Dakota with another $1 million in spending."
People Walk Out on Obama at Campaign Event
President Obama "made a rare appearance on the campaign trail on Sunday with a rally to support the Democratic candidate for governor in Maryland, though the event was marred somewhat by early departures of crowd members and a yelling heckler," Reuters reports."Some 8,000 people turned out for the event, held in a noisy school gymnasium. But a steady stream of people walked out while he spoke, and a heckler interrupted his remarks."
Tennessee Lawmaker Arrested Three Times in One Month
Tennessee state Sen. Jim Summerville (R) "was arrested twice this weekend -- just one month after he was arrested for public intoxication," the New York Daily News reports.Summerville "has been charged with stalking and assault in separate incidents involving his neighbor."
McConnell Seeks to Clear the Decks
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) "wants to get all must-pass legislation completed in the lame-duck session so Senate Republicans will have a clean slate at the start of 2015 if they control the upper chamber," The Hill reports."Senate GOP aides say that's the message from the leader, who could face opposition from conservative lawmakers who want to block any non-emergency measures in the window between Election Day and the start of the new Congress in January."
Most Feel U.S. Has Lost Control
A new Politico poll finds "an overwhelming majority of voters in the most competitive 2014 elections say it feels as if events in the United States are "out of control" and expressed mounting alarm about terrorism, anxiety about Ebola and harsh skepticism of both political parties only three weeks before the Nov. 4 midterms."Key fidings: Two-thirds of likely voters said they feel that the United States has lost control of its major challenges. Only 36 percent said the country is "in a good position to meet its economic and national security" hurdles.
Grayson's Divorce Gets Messier
Rep. Alan Grayson's (D-FL) "messy divorce is getting messier, at least when it comes to his house," the AP reports."Court papers filed by his estranged wife, Lolita, claim that the Democratic congressman failed to pay for repairs for the 5,300-square-foot Orlando house where she is living with their four children. The roof is leaking, broken windows are allowing rain to get inside and the house has a significant mold problem because of the moisture, Lolita Grayson said in the papers filed at the Orange County Courthouse. She also said the congressman cut off her credit cards, even though he has been the sole financial provider during their 24 years of marriage."
October 19, 2014
Where Are the Polls?
Harry Enten: "Two weeks and two days before Election Day, and we received just two polls over the weekend. The polls, both taken in Colorado by left-leaning groups, had little impact on the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast -- Republicans have a 62 percent chance of taking the Senate. Indeed, we were more interested in the small number of polls than what those two surveys said.""The FiveThirtyEight model relies mostly on polls, and without polls, the forecast's accuracy could suffer. So we looked into it. Fortunately, this weekend was an aberration. We're getting fewer polls than we did in 2010, but we're not getting way fewer polls."
Obama Seeks Iran Deal That Would Avoid Congress
New York Times: "No one knows if the Obama administration will manage in the next five weeks to strike what many in the White House consider the most important foreign policy deal of his presidency: an accord with Iran that would forestall its ability to make a nuclear weapon. But the White House has made one significant decision: If agreement is reached, President Obama will do everything in his power to avoid letting Congress vote on it."
Likely Voters Favor GOP Led Congress
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg survey finds likely voters favor a Republican-led Congress over a Democratic one, 49% to 44%."The survey is yet more evidence that Democratic voters are tuning out the midterms. Democrats carried a 10-point lead among low-interest voters, who the party is trying to reach and motivate with vigorous turnout operations across the country. Republicans carried a 10-point lead in the new survey among voters who said they were highly interested in the election."
Quote of the Day
"The game is rigged, and the Republicans rigged it."-- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), quoted by the Washington Post.
Black Voters Key to Democrats Holding Senate
"The confidential memo from a former pollster for President Obama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this month with an eye toward Election Day, it predicted 'crushing Democratic losses across the country' if the party did not do more to get black voters to the polls," the New York Times reports.Wrote pollster Cornell Belcher: "African-American surge voters came out in force in 2008 and 2012, but they are not well positioned to do so again in 2014. In fact, over half aren't even sure when the midterm elections are taking place."
Romney Leads GOP Field for President
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 21% of Republican voters back Mitt Romney for president."When Romney is excluded from the race, his supporters scatter, adding no clarity to the GOP free-for-all. In that scenario former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul have 12 or 13 percent support from leaned Republicans who are registered to vote. All others have support in the single digits."
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead with 64% support.
October 18, 2014
Investigation Uncovers Candidate's Medals for Valor
"The American political graveyard has more than a few monuments to politicians and public officials who embellished details of their military service, in some cases laying claim to medals for heroism or other military honors they never received," the Boston Globe reports."And then, uniquely, there is Seth W. Moulton, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the Sixth Congressional District, a former Marine who saw fierce combat for months and months in Iraq. But Moulton chose not to publicly disclose that he was twice decorated for heroism until pressed by the Globe."
Bonus Quote of the Day
"This is as close as we've gotten to a presidential-style campaign in those states. We're assuming that the 2014 electorate is going to look more like 2012 than 2010."-- GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, quoted by the New York Times, on the battleground states.
Quote of the Day
"I love her. That's easy to understand. She loves me. That's hard to understand."-- Edwin Edwards, quoted by the Financial Times, on his wife who is 51 years younger than him.
Black Woman Standing Next to Corbett Was Photoshopped
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett's (R) re-election campaign "found an African-American woman to stand next to the governor on his website photos," the Philadelphia Daily News reports."Not an actual woman. According to Buzzfeed, the black woman who gazes at Corbett was Photoshopped from a stock picture."
Supreme Court Allows Texas to Use Voter ID Law
"The Supreme Court on Saturday allowed Texas to use its strict voter identification law in the November election. The court's order was unsigned and contained no reasoning," the New York Times reports."The law, enacted in 2011, requires voters seeking to cast their ballots at the polls to present photo identification like a Texas driver's or gun license, a military ID or a passport."
Midterm Polling Error is Much Larger
Sam Wang: "Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He saw no overall bias; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year polling.""From a practical standpoint, this is good news for those of you who don't like where things have headed lately: in midterms, Senate polling errors are five times larger than in Presidential years. There is bad news too: the error can go in either direction, and a GOP blowout is also possible."
Gillespie Gives Up in Virginia
"Ed Gillespie, one of the Republican establishment's most respected advisers and powerful fundraisers, badly trails in the race for campaign cash and has asked television stations to stop running his ads for Senate with just three weeks left before Election Day," CBS News reports."Reports filed with the Federal Communications Commission show Gillespie's campaign cancelling or drastically reducing the amount of money it plans to spend on television ads in coming days. At the same time, political operatives who track television advertising said Thursday that Gillespie does not have ads reserved in the final push toward the Nov. 4 elections."
Clinton Tests Campaign Themes
Hillary Clinton "is back on the campaign trail after a six-year hiatus, aiming to rouse Democratic voters who don't typically show up for midterm elections. In the course of trying to help her party's candidates, she is also testing themes that would likely surface in her own potential run for office and giving clues to the political profile she might adopt in a presidential campaign," the Wall Street Journal reports."Lately, Mrs. Clinton has spiced her campaign-trail speeches with targeted criticism of business--notable given that some liberals are suspicious of the Clinton family for accepting hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate donations and speaking fees. Those concerns could prompt a primary challenge from the political left."
October 17, 2014
Clinton Aides Halted Investigation Into Sexual Misconduct
"A State Department investigation has found that aides to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton contributed to the 'appearance of undue influence and favoritism' in three departmental investigations related to alleged sexual conduct by officials in the field," Time reports."In the highest-level case, the department's inspector general found that senior State Department officials declared an allegation that the U.S. Ambassador to Belgium had solicited a prostitute in a public park as a 'management issue.' The move effectively halted an investigation by the department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security."
