May 09, 2008


Clinton Still Hopes to Win Popular Vote

With Sen. Barack Obama now leading in the support of both pledged delegates and superdelegates -- adding at least seven more supers to his tally today -- ABC News reports that Bill Clinton is making the case that Sen. Hillary Clinton can still win the popular vote if she gets 80% support in West Virginia next week.

Unfortunately, "many in the crowd seemed to lose interest as he began his speech -- even during his appeal for a high voter turnout."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Kennedy Says Joint Ticket Not Possible

In an interview to be televised later tonight on Bloomberg TV, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) said Sen. Barack Obama isn't likely to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as a running mate.

Said Kennedy: "I don't think it's possible."

He said Obama should choose a running mate who "is in tune with his appeal for the
nobler aspirations of the American people."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Bonus Quote of the Day

"Well, I don't think that carries any more weight than anyone who will argue that the fact that she only got 8 percent of the African-American vote in North Carolina indicates that she cannot get African-American votes in the general election."

-- Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), in an interview with the National Journal, on Sen. Hillary Clinton's contention that Sen. Barack Obama cannot win over white voters.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Emanuel Admits Obama Won

At a New Yorker conference this morning, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) -- who has been hiding under his desk during the Democratic presidential race -- acknowledged for the first time that Sen. Barack Obama is the "presumptive nominee" of his party.

When moderator Ryan Lizza pointed out that there are only 217 undecided super delegates left, Emanuel laughed and said "it's an exclusive club."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Down the Stretch

CQ Politics takes "a quick look" at the next six primaries and notes Sen. Hillary Clinton "appears to have the edge in two states and in Puerto Rico -- provided she continues to stay in the race -- and Sen. Barack Obama seems to have an advantage in three states."

Over at Political Insider, I also handicapped the remaining races.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


ARG Poll: Clinton Holds Huge Lead in West Virginia

A new American Research Group poll in West Virginia finds Sen. Hillary Clinton way ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 66% to 23%.

Key findings: Clinton leads among men, 57% to 27%, and she leads among women, 72% to 20%. Clinton leads among white voters, 70% to 19%, and Obama leads among African American voters, 91% to 3%. African Americans voters, however, only account for 5% of likely Democratic primary voters in the state.

It's also interesting that "someone else" received 5% of the vote on the ballot question. John Edwards is still on the ballot in West Virginia, but his name was not mentioned in the survey.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Fossella Keeps Support of NY-13 Constituents

As Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) contemplates his political future after admitting he fathered a child from an extramarital affair, a new SurveyUSA poll finds 61% of adults from his NY-13 district say he should remain in office, while 32% say he should resign.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Sorensen Finally Admits Collaboration With Kennedy

Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History
In his long-awaited memoirs, Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History, former JFK aide Ted Sorensen admits he "collaborated" on Profiles in Courage with then Sen. John F. Kennedy.

According to a Wall Street Journal review, Sorensen says, for the first time, that he "did a first draft of most chapters," "helped choose the words of many of its sentences" and likely "privately boasted or indirectly hinted that I had written much of the book."

Profiles in Courage Sorensen also admits that in 1957 -- just after the book won a Pulitizer Prize -- that Kennedy "unexpectedly and generously offered, and I happily accepted, a sum" for Sorensen's work on the book.

The overall review of Sorensen's book is glowing: "The heroic effort it required to complete this volume in the wake of his stroke, and to do so in a style that remains masterly, is itself an inspiration. Even when he is describing 40 years of post-White House law practice, there is hardly a page that does not confirm our sense of Mr. Sorensen as a writer of the first rank. If his active service to Kennedy is now concluded, we are still left with the inescapable sense that the words that the two men crafted together -- however one divides the credit -- will live on."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Quote of the Day

"I won't accept a cabinet post regardless of which of the three candidates wins the presidency."

-- Al Gore, quoted by the Bloomberg.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Suspended in Air

The Economist: "In cartoons there is often a moment when a hapless character, having galloped over a cliff, is still unaware of the fact and hangs suspended in the air, legs pumping wildly, until realisation dawns, gravity intervenes and downfall ensues. Hillary Clinton's campaign looks a bit like that this week. After her heavy loss in North Carolina and her barely perceptible victory in Indiana, a state she needed to carry triumphantly, Mrs Clinton's campaign is surely close to its end."

Special offer for Political Wire readers: Get a free trial subscription to The Economist.


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Clinton Asks for Private Endorsements

According to The Politico, Sen. Hillary Clinton is asking some uncommitted superdelegates "if they could commit to her privately -- without the political risks of a public endorsement -- so that she could gauge whether she has the support she feels she needs to remain a viable candidate."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Obama Plans Ad Blitz Against McCain

Sen. Barack Obama "already has begun pivoting toward the general election," the Wall Street Journal reports. "Soon, he is likely to unleash attack ads aimed at defining Sen. John McCain. With vastly more money, Sen. Obama will be able to flood the airwaves as voters are forming impressions."

Goal #1: Link McCain to President Bush as closely as possible.

"The comparison to President Bush is one of many reasons why Sen. McCain has walked a careful line as he defines himself. He helped shore up a Republican base with a string of conservative policy positions on the economy, Iraq, health care and judges. Though he has courted a maverick image of moderation, he has made clear that his policy agenda will contour to conservative thought."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Obama Takes Lead in Superdelegates

"For the first time this campaign season," Sen. Barack Obama has surpassed Sen. Hillary Clinton's "support among superdelegates," according to the ABC News delegate estimate. 

Obama "picked up two superdelegates this morning giving him a new metric to tout in addition to his current commanding leads in pledged delegates, popular votes, states won, and money raised."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008


Clinton Lacks Path to Nomination -- and Exit

Sen. Hillary Clinton is "darting around the country like a full-fledged presidential candidate," but the Los Angeles Times notes that within her "circle of advisors and donors, the conversation has turned to how she can make a dignified exit from the race."

"For all the signs of normalcy, much of the infrastructure that keeps the New York senator's campaign going -- the aides, donors and political allies -- is resigned to the hard reality that the Democratic nomination now appears out of reach."

But just as she can't find a path to the nomination, she also doesn't have a clear path to exit.

"Having invested 16 months and raised more than $200 million in the campaign, Clinton may find it difficult to quit. Her campaign persona is now built on the idea that she's working-class America's scrappy warrior. So dropping out with six contests left in the campaign season would be awkward."


Comments (View) | May 09, 2008




Clock Ticking on Clinton Loans

U.S. News and World Report: "Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason -- at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the millions she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modest sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Obama's Trojan Horse Voter Drive

Sen. Barack Obama's previously announced national voter registration drive is actually much more than that and something that "should scare the beejeesus out of the McCain campaign and the RNC," according to Marc Ambinder.

"The Vote For Change program will lay the foundation for Obama's general election get-out-the-vote efforts. Obama aides won't say much more, but I gather that the campaign is constructing an incredibly elaborate online interface to allow its more than a million donors and volunteers to directly persuade their neighbors through a variety of media. Names gathered from the voter registration effort will be merged with names gathered through Obama's primary efforts and the names off of the Democratic Party's integrated voter file as well as lists purchased from outside vendors."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Tracking the Supers

The Politico has an excellent chart to keep track of the Democratic superdelegates and who they have endorsed and who is still uncommitted.


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Congressman Admits to Fathering Child From Affair

Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) acknowledged "that he fathered a child from an extramarital affair, answering questions that arose from his arrest on drunken driving charges last week," the AP reports.

"The disclosure clouds Fossella's political future. He faced a surprisingly tough re-election challenge in 2006, and Democrats were hoping to unseat him this year."

CQ Politics says Fossella "was under growing pressure" to resign.


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Bush Approval Keeps Falling

President Bush's job approval rating has fallen to 28%, according to the new Gallup Poll.

Stunning: "Just 6 in 10 Republicans approve of the job he is doing, the lowest of his administration."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Obama Woos Superdelegates on House Floor

"The fight for Democratic superdelegates moved to the House floor on Thursday as Sen. Barack Obama spoke to dozens of Democrats in the House well," The Hill reports.

"Obama, increasingly looking like the Democratic presidential nominee, strode into the House chamber just before 11 a.m.as the House was beginning a series of votes. Obama, who was greeted with hugs and backslaps, slipped in the side door along with what appeared to be only his security detail."

Said Obama: "I wanted to see what's going on over here. I hear there's a lot of action on this side."

Ben Smith suggests several members previously committed to Sen. Hillary Clinton seemed to be "wavering."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Clinton's Strategy of Last Resort

"Unable to revive her presidential campaign at the polls," the Los Angeles Times says Sen. Hillary Clinton "now envisions a road to the nomination built on disputes over Democratic Party rules and fights over delegate selections. But on Wednesday even that route looked unattainable, with some key party officials warning that they would not cooperate with Clinton's strategy."

Democratic leaders "suggested that setbacks for Clinton's new strategy could come as early as May 31, when a party committee meets to consider the dispute over delegates from Florida and Michigan."

However, the New York Times notes that Clinton spokesman Phil Singer "estimated that in a best-case event," where Florida and Michigan delegates were seated according to each state's popular vote, Clinton "would still be about 100 delegates shy of the number needed."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Rove Warns GOP of Tough Race

Karl Rove: "This will be a very difficult year for Republicans. The economy's shaky state, an unpopular war, and the natural desire for partisan change after eight years of one party in the White House have helped tilt the balance to the Democrats."

However, Sen. John McCain "is the best candidate Republicans could have picked in this environment. With the GOP brand low, his appeal to moderates and independents becomes even more crucial."

Related from Marc Ambinder: "Data released today by the Democratic Party reminds us all of just how much of a Democratic year this actually is and just how valuable a party-building exercise a competitive primary can be."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Clinton Campaign Piles Up Debt

ABC News This Week host George Stephanopoulos said that sources tell him that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign debt could be as high as $20 million -- more than double earlier reports.


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Obama Shifts Strategy

The Los Angeles Times reports Sen. Barack Obama "hasn't managed after months of political combat to force" Sen. Hillary Clinton "out of the presidential race, so he's about to try another approach: ignoring her."

"Confident that he has built a near-impregnable lead, his campaign aides said Wednesday that Obama would begin shifting his focus toward the general election."

"Obama still plans to campaign in states that remain on the primary calendar -- he is to appear in Oregon over the weekend -- but he may also start showing up in states that are considered important in the November contest: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. (All three have held their Democratic primaries.)"

Meanwhile, the New York Daily News notes the Obama campaign "has begun talks" with Clinton administration "loyalists" in an attempt to "recruit field organizers, finance officials and press officers."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008


Bonior Will Back Obama

ABC News has learned that former Rep. David Bonior, the campaign manager for John Edwards' presidential bid, will endorse Sen. Barack Obama today.

Bonior is said "to like Obama's general positive tone, as well as Obama's message of change and stance against taking money from federal lobbyists."


Comments (View) | May 08, 2008





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