The Upshot: “The candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the nomination. Even when he doesn’t, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.”
“For all that you may read about Donald Trump, Jeb Bush now leads the campaign, with the most endorsements and money, as well as top-three showings in the polls — which is reflected in the prediction markets, a kind of synthesis of the other data. But it is not a dominant lead, in part because of how few endorsements any candidate has yet received. After Mr. Bush is Scott Walker, who leads the Iowa polls.”
Wonk Wire: Context is important when considering polling numbers
Save to Favorites