It's All About Turnout

December 04, 2003

It's All About Turnout

A new Gallup poll confirms that the key factor for the 2004 presidential election will be voter turnout, or "each candidate's ability to galvanize his or her natural base to vote in higher-than-normal percentages."

Other than Reagan and Eisenhower, President Bush has the highest approval rating (87 percent) among members of his own party. However, Bush has only about 20 percent approval from Democrats, compared to a 30 to 40 percent approval rating from opposing party members for previous presidents in the year before the election. A Gallup notes, and a previous poll also suggersts, Bush will need very strong party turnout to win.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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December 04, 2003