Archive: October 31, 2004
Much has been made about the possible undersampling of cell phone users in political polls this year. (For example, see our
earlier post on the subject.) A
Zogby/Rock the Vote poll "conducted exclusively on mobile phones" finds Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters.
The
Center for Responsive Politics projects that the 2004 presidential and congressional elections will cost a combined $3.9 billion. That figure marks a 30 percent increase over the $3 billion that was spent on the 2000 elections. For the presidential race, the group expects both parities and their allied advocacy groups will shell out $1.2 billion.
The
Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush.
"Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."
A
Democracy Corps poll shows the release of the Osama bin Laden video is more likely -- by 46% to 36% -- to remind people that bin Laden hasn't been caught and remains a threat to the United States rather than give them positive feelings about President Bush as a fighter of terrorism.
Update: The
AP reports Dick Cheney is using this poll to claim Kerry polled the issue "to find out what he should say about this tape of Osama bin Laden."
Update II: The
NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds the reverse about the video message. "About 24% said it made them more likely to back Mr. Bush, while 12% said it made them more likely to support Mr. Kerry."
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "go into the final 48 hours of the 2004 presidential campaign within easy reach of an electoral majority, but neither has a clear advantage in the remaining handful of tossup states," the
Washington Post reports.
"This year's election is a virtual rerun of the 2000 race, with many of the same states in the too-close-to-call category. But four years ago, Bush's route to an electoral majority was clearer than Al Gore's, while this year his path appears no easier than Kerry's, given the states still in play."
The article says the race comes down to six states: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico. "All are regarded as tossups by neutral observers and the two campaigns."
The
New York Times agrees that the campaign "is ending as it began, focused with blazing intensity on no more than a dozen hard-fought states" but says the three most important are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
The
Los Angeles Times says the key states are Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin.
The
AP points to eight states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico.
Archive: October 30, 2004
A new
Fox News poll shows President Bush's lead slipping to just two points over Sen. John Kerry. Half of those surveyed had the opportunity to hear reports of Osama bin Laden's new video tape.
For more polls, please check these sources:
Both campaigns can find something to like in the latest polls, but the race is still essentially a tie.
Mystery Pollster says undecided voters will start breaking in the next day ot two.
Archive: October 29, 2004
For those tired of watching polls, here's an excuse to stop: Take a look at the Gallup tracking poll exactly
four years ago.
According to a new
Denver Post poll, the ballot initiative to change the way Colorado allocates electoral votes is fading fast. "Just 31 percent of voters said they favored it, 55 percent opposed it, and 14 percent were undecided."
"Partisan differences on the initiative were particularly striking. Democrats favored it 45 percent to 37 percent, with 18 percent undecided; Republicans opposed it 76 percent to 15 percent, with 9 percent undecided."
Despite reports in the
Boston Herald that Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling will campaign with President Bush in New Hampshire today,
Boston Dirt Dogs has this exclusive from Schilling:
"I am now not medically cleared to do anything until I see Doc on Sunday, so I cannot travel with President Bush tomorrow (Friday). Second, while I am a Bush supporter, and I did vote for him with an absentee ballot, speaking as I did the other day was wrong. While I hope to see him re-elected, it's not my place, nor the time for me to offer up my political opinons unsolicited. I am proud we have the right to vote, and the message I wanted to send but didn't, was that regardless of who you are voting for the bottom line is that you MUST vote. You must vote because there are millions of Americans who have given their lives before us, and will continue to give their lives after us, so that we can remain free to make the choices we need to make when it comes to electing our Nation's leaders."
A NASA photo analyst says sophisticated imaging techniques prove president Bush's
bulge in his suit jacket during the first debate "was not caused by wrinkled clothing,"
Salon reports.
Says Dr. Robert Nelson: "I am willing to stake my scientific reputation to the statement that Bush was wearing something under his jacket during the debate."
No matter how much you look at the polls, it's shaping up to be an extremely close election. That's about all they tell us right now. None of the tracking polls or state polls give us clear guidance as to who is going to win the presidential election next Tuesday. Of course, when we do find polls that give us insight into who will win, you'll read about them first on
Political Wire.
For instance, a new
Miami Herald/Zogby poll in Florida gives Kerry a big lead in Miami-Dade county of "anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state."
In addition,
Alan Abramowitz has a pretty good analysis of the latest national polls. "Bush appears to hold a very slight lead nationally, but his support remains below the 50 percent level that is generally considered necessary for an incumbent since undecided voters generally break toward the challenger by a wide margin."
For those who still want more polling data, please check these sources:
If readers have any additional insights into these polls or electoral tallies, please let me know.
A non-partisan report finds that, "pushed by heavy registration of new voters in the presidential battleground states, more than 143 million Americans will be on the voting rolls by Election Day,"
USA Today reports. "The figure is 10 million more than were registered to vote in the last presidential election and could signal the highest voter participation in more than three decades."
Meanwhile, the
New York Times reports that there has been "a surge in early voting this year, with people lining up in numbers so large that some analysts predict that one-fifth of presidential ballots will be cast before Nov. 2. This trend is sharply altering the homestretch calculus of campaign strategists, affecting where candidates are sent and money is spent in the final days."
President Bush's campaign said "that it was replacing one of its closing advertisements after acknowledging that it included an image that had been
doctored to increase the number of soldiers appearing to listen to Mr. Bush," the
New York Times reports.
Meanwhile, the
Boston Globe notes that campaign operatives "waged a fierce battle over television advertisements, endorsements, and voter activity" behind the scenes.
"With the approach of the final weekend of campaigning, each candidate's strategy, both geographical and rhetorical, came into sharper focus," the
Washington Post reports. "Geographically, both men will concentrate almost all their efforts on Florida and on the upper midwestern states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio."
Meanwhile,
KITV-TV says Democrats and Republicans "are turning a lot of attention to Hawaii in a presidential race that has become unexpectedly close..." Dick Cheney will be Hawaii for a rally on Sunday; Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry are scheduled to arrive today.
CNN reports Bill Clinton "will be back on the campaign trail" today "for a three-day trip to help get out the vote for" Kerry. He "will travel from New York to a pair of deadlocked battleground states -- Nevada on Friday and New Mexico on Saturday -- before returning Sunday to rally the faithful in his native Arkansas."
Archive: October 28, 2004
A
Pew Research Center Poll finds Sen. John Kerry "has made more substantial gains among swing voters in the past month" than has President Bush. "Those who have decided on their vote in the past month mention the debates as a crucial factor in their decision more than any other events or issues."
The new
Democracy Corps poll shows Kerry leading 49% to 46%.
The new
Economist poll shows Kerry leading 49% to 45%.
Here are some notable state polls:
The Economist, which endorsed George W. Bush for president in 2000, has reversed itself and now backs Sen. John Kerry:
"This year's battle has been between two deeply flawed men: George Bush, who has been a radical, transforming president but who has never seemed truly up to the job, let alone his own ambitions for it; and John Kerry, who often seems to have made up his mind conclusively about something only once, and that was 30 years ago. But on November 2nd, Americans must make their choice, as must The Economist. It is far from an easy call, especially against the backdrop of a turbulent, dangerous world. But, on balance, our instinct is towards change rather than continuity: Mr Kerry, not Mr Bush."
Why is the London-based magazine endorsing a candidate in an American election? "
The Economist's weekly sales in the United States are about 450,000 copies, which is three times our British sale and roughly 45% of our worldwide total."
What if you show up to vote next Tuesday and election workers say you are not registered?
1. Make sure you are at the correct voting precinct. You can check at My Polling Place or call 1-866-OUR-VOTE for assistance.
2. If you are at the correct polling place and officials claim you are not registered, request a provisional ballot. It's your right under the law.
Please pass this on to as many people as you can.
President Bush "is wrapping up his reelection bid as he began it, on the attack," the
Boston Globe reports. "But political scientists note that while Bush's campaign strategy might help fire up supporters in regions of the country where he is popular, it might not be having as powerful an effect in all-important battleground states, such as Florida and Ohio."
Meanwhile, the
Des Moines Register notes that Sen. John Kerry "turned sharply from the bruising attacks on" Bush's "conduct of the military occupation of Iraq and instead offered a hopeful appeal to independents and Republicans with just six days until the election."
Campaigning in Ohio, President Bush "appeared to have tweaked his campaign style, appearing more presidential in a suit and tie rather than in the blue shirt with rolled-up sleeves," the
Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
President Bush "broke his silence on Wednesday on the disappearance of 380 tons of explosives in Iraq, accusing Sen. John Kerry of making 'wild charges' about the missing explosives and of 'denigrating the actions' of troops in the field," the
New York Times reports.
"That Bush addressed the issue at all... reflected the prominence the explosives have gained in the final days of the presidential race, when every moment is precious to the campaigns," the
Washington Post reports. "Kerry has used the situation to question Bush's terrorism-fighting credentials, and the matter has crowded out the subjects Bush is raising, particularly an appeal to Democrats."
The
Los Angeles Times says Kerry's "sharp statements dominated the day's campaign debate, putting Bush on the defensive and giving the Massachusetts senator an opportunity to question the incumbent's credentials as commander in chief."
Archive: October 27, 2004
From GOP pollster
Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates: "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry."
"Last night on this broadcast we reported that the 101st Airborne never found the nearly 380 tons of HMX and RDX explosives. We did not conclude the explosives were missing or had vanished, nor did we say they missed the explosives. We simply reported that the 101st did not find them."
"For its part, the Bush campaign immediately pointed to our report as conclusive proof that the weapons had been removed before the Americans arrived. That is possible, but that is not what we reported."
-- NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw, quoted by the
New York Times, on the missing weapons in Iraq. The most telling line from the story: "For the second day Mr. Bush did not speak about the issue, twice ignoring questions from reporters."
"Many newly registered voters are wild cards whose uncertain allegiances could tip the vote in closely contested states... making such voters the focus of an intense tug of war between the parties," the
New York Times reports.
One thing to note: The latest
ABC News/Washington Post poll found first-time voters also oppose the reelection of President Bush by 58 percent to 37 percent.
Meanwhile, the
Washington Post notes reports of college students being discouraged to register.
The Broward County (FL) Supervisor of Elections office "said it couldn't account for nearly 60,000 missing absentee ballots sent to voters and that its phone lines were being overwhelmed by calls,"
Knight Ridder reports.
"Just six days away from the general election, the Supervisor of Elections office has fielded hundreds of complaints from people who have yet to receive their absentee ballot. Countless more have been unable to get through to election officials to complain or get their questions answered."
The latest
Democracy Corps poll shows Kerry leading Bush 49% to 47%.
Here are some notable state polls:
- New Jersey: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (Quinnipiac)
- Michigan: Kerry 45, Bush 44 (Mitchell Research)
- Missouri: Bush 48, Kerry 45 (Research 2000)
For a more complete list of state polls, check out
2.004k.com.
Archive: October 26, 2004
The
Christian Science Monitor makes a convincing case that there will be legal challenges after the election. "The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) was intended to prevent a repeat of the failings of the 2000 presidential election. Instead, it has set the stage for a potential explosion of litigation that could, once again, throw the outcome of the election to the courts."
"At the center of the controversy is part of the law mandating that states permit voters to cast provisional ballots if their eligibility is challenged by election officials. A provisional ballot will be counted as valid if an investigation reveals the voter is qualified."
The
Los Angeles Times says "voter registration fraud could well become this year's hanging chad. If so, it will be an issue that the losing party can seize upon to argue in the courts that the election was flawed."
Editor and Publisher notes polls in previous years have shown "that roughly 5 to 10% of voters (or more) felt that editorials had some influence when they cast their ballots. In a battleground state that's not insignificant."
That said, here's the scorecard: "Sen. John Kerry now holds a fairly narrow lead in the number of endorsements, but he has gained many more of the larger papers, holding about a 17 million to 12 million edge by circulation. Most telling, however, is that at least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry, and another nine that supported Bush before have declared their neutrality this year. Only five so far have gone from Gore to Bush."
A
complete list of newspaper endorsements is also provided.
"A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan - possibly in violation of US law - to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts," a
BBC Newsnight investigation reveals.
Editor's Note: The memos in question came from the Dead Letter Office we
wrote about earlier.
A quick note to Bush campaign workers, volunteers and supporters:
The official Bush-Cheney campaign website is located at
georgewbush.com, not at
georgewbush.org which hosts an anti-Bush website. If you sent an email to the wrong address, you might be able to find it in the
dead letter office where they are now being published for all to see.
E.J. Dionne points out that, according to the latest poll findings, Sen. John Kerry's supporters "are more likely" than President Bush's "to believe that this year's election is the most important of their lifetimes... As a political matter, this intensity gap suggests that even if Bush has been successful in mobilizing the Republican Party's political base, he has been even more successful in mobilizing Democrats."
Meanwhile, in an interesting corollary,
Tom Oliphant notes that "in several of the most closely contested states" Bush "is being kept away because his appearances tend to gin up the local Democrats as much as they do Republicans. In the so-called Red states Bush carried in 2000 that he is most in danger of losing to Kerry -- New Hampshire, Ohio, and Nevada most prominently -- Bush's absences since the debates have been noteworthy."
Robert Dallek looks at historical precedent and concludes President Bush is heading for defeat next Tuesday: "The deciding influence in re-election campaigns has been a president's perceived achievements and failures... That a president with so questionable a record is still running a competitive race is a little startling. If Bush wins the election, it would seem to represent the triumph of spin politics."
"But past elections would suggest that the electorate will reject his imperfect leadership and make him the sixth incumbent since 1908 to serve only one term."
Here are the latest tracking polls:
What's wrong with these tracking polls?
Mystery Pollster says the discrepancies have to do with sampling error.
Here are some notable state polls:
For a good list of recent state polls, see
2.004k.com.
"In Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Oregon and other key states, Democrats and Republicans seem convinced their opponents are bent on stealing the election," the
Los Angeles Times reports.
And in Ohio, the
Washington Post notes the "continuing legal and bureaucratic uncertainties have heightened fears that" the state "could be on the verge of becoming the next Florida."
Finally, and perhaps most important, most Americans expect a disputed election: "Six in 10 of those surveyed in an
Associated Press poll say it's likely there will not be a clear winner in the presidential race by Nov. 3 -- the day after the election -- and fear the results will be challenged in court."
A pair of polls (see
here and
here) showing President Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry "in traditionally Democratic Hawaii is prompting three independent groups that have been supporting the Democrat to consider advertising," the
Boston Globe reports.
"The Media Fund, MoveOn.org, and possibly Americans Coming Together, are expected to announce as early as today an array of activity, with the first likely to broadcast radio ads, the second possibly airing television spots, and the third possibly joining in the TV ads."
Bill Clinton campaigns again in Florida today, "with Nevada and New Mexico on the itinerary at the end of the week if his health holds," the
New York Times reports. "On the way home to New York on Sunday, Mr. Clinton plans to stop in his native Arkansas... where a new poll shows the contest suddenly close."
The
Miami Herald notes Clinton's appearance in Florida yesterday was "part of a three-pronged approach Monday for Kerry's campaign, which also dispatched Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, to Homestead and sent Al Gore to the epicenter of the 2000 election meltdown: Palm Beach and Broward counties."
Today, Sen. John Kerry gives his last major speech of the campaign and "tackles one of the defining issues of the campaign -- which candidate can best protect Americans from another terrorist attack," the
AP reports. "For the final week, Kerry will try to sell his candidacy at political rallies that are traditionally less about policy than about inspiring voters."
Meanwhile, based on each candidates' remarks yesterday, the
Boston Globe notes it's "the latest signal that, one week before Election Day, Democrats and Republicans agree that the race is likely to turn on Iraq and terrorism concerns."
"Though he still won't commit to campaigning out of state for" President Bush, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) "is blitzing California in the days before the election, stumping for legislative candidates and urging voters to follow his advice on a string of ballot measures," the
Los Angeles Times reports. "He is considering a single trip to Ohio -- there and back the same day, probably Friday."
The
Wall Street Journal released two free resources for political junkies.
Poll Tracker features a timeline showing the trends in major national polls since Sept. 19.
State of the States is an interactive map which shows which states "are locked up, leaning toward Bush or Kerry, or still a tossup."
Editor's Note: You may need to disable your popup blocker to access these sites.
"Math whizzes are behind an abundance of Web sites dedicated to drawing electoral maps in red and blue. And now this elite cadre of political amateurs is unleashing the tools of statistics and mathematics on an extraordinarily close presidential race," the
Wall Street Journal reports.
These statistical modelers "contend that isn't enough to go one-by-one through the states and call them for Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry. That, they say, misses substantial nuances that are greatly magnified by the large number of states in play. For example, a candidate polling slim margins of victory in a number of small states is less likely to win them all than an opponent who has larger leads in fewer, but larger, states. The distinction is hard to represent on a color-coded map; it is more easily captured by statistical software."
One site mentioned is by Princeton Professor
Sam Wang which currently predicts a Democratic victory when allocating undecided voters: Kerry 307, Bush 231.
Another site by Cal State's
Matthew Hubbard, which "chomps through 16.8 million possibilities in the Electoral College in 72 seconds," also predicts a Kerry victory. His most recent prediction gives Kerry a 73.9% chance of reaching the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes, with Bush at 24.6%. He rated the probability of a 269-269 tie at 1.6%.
Meanwhile,
Political Wire reader Jesse Reichler sends me a link to his
Mouser's Election Predictor, a program for estimating "the likelihood that a given candidate will win the presidential election based on estimates of how each seach state is leaning, and taking into account the electoral college all-or-nothing voting system." This program ideal for use on election night as states results come in. Check the online
documentation for updates in the coming days.
Archive: October 25, 2004
President Bush "commands a five percentage point lead" over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, according to a new
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 47%.
Update: The new
ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Kerry moving into a narrow lead over Bush, 49% to 48%. The real bad news for Bush is that 55% of the likely voters said they believe the country was "pretty seriously off on the wrong track."
Update II: The new
Los Angeles Times poll has Bush leading Kerry 49% to 48% among likely voters.
Here are some notable state polls:
- New Hampshire: Kerry 50, Bush 41 (Franklin Pierce College)
- Colorado: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Zogby)
- Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Zogby)
- Iowa: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Zogby)
- Michigan: Kerry 52, Bush 42 (Zogby)
- Minnesota: Kerry 46, Bush 45 (Zogby)
- Nevada: Bush 48, Kerry 44 (Zogby)
- New Mexico: Bush 49, Kerry 44 (Zogby)
- Ohio: Bush 47, Kerry 42 (Zogby)
- Pennsylvania: Kerry 47, Bush 45 (Zogby)
- Wisconsin: Bush 48, Kerry 45 (Zogby)
Trying to guage "where things stand" in the presidential race,
Al Hunt speaks to strategists from both sides and notes "there is a rough consensus: Among likely voters George W. Bush holds a slim lead, yet most of the very small undecided bloc is more likely to break for the challenger. That makes it a tossup."
"In the final analysis, the universe of differences in the polls is so small... that no one is confident how the election is shaking out."
Though he notes "the final phase of this campaign is like projecting the path of a hurricane,"
Craig Crawford says John Kerry will win the election.
"For all of President Bush’s valiant efforts to make this campaign a referendum on his challenger’s character, it is turning into what the nature of politics demands: a referendum on the incumbent’s performance."
In their latest
strategy memo, James Carville and Stan Greenberg say "the big story in this election is the Education Gap, which is greatly impacting who are the targets in the coming week, and will impact and be the story of the election afterwards. While the Gender Gap has diminished since 2000, the Education Gap has expanded significantly, and is now slightly larger than the division along gender lines."
"In 2000, there was only a 2-point education gap, with Gore and Bush running dead even among college graduates and Bush winning by just 2 points among the non-college educated voters. The result was a 2-point
education gap. But not so in 2004. Today, there is now a 12-point education gap. Kerry is winning college educated voters by 10 points but losing the non-college graduates by 2 points."
"Presidential election forecasting models developed by political scientists predict a Bush victory in the hotly contested 2004 presidential election," according to the latest issue of
PS: Political Science and Politics.
"Nine distinguished and nonpartisan political scientists predict that, when averaging their seven forecasts, President George W. Bush will garner 53.8% of the two-party popular vote in the 2004 presidential election. Six of the seven forecasts predict a Bush victory, while one predicts a narrow Kerry victory."
The biggest caveat to these studies is that they are predicting each candidates' share of the national vote and not the electoral votes.
"I had to ask myself would I vote the same way if the names were reversed. I said 'yes.' But I'll never know for sure -- because people are great self-kidders -- if I reached the truthful answer."
-- Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, quoted by the
AP, on
Gore v. Bush in 2000.
We enjoy looking at the various electoral college tallies as much as anyone -- see
here for our latest -- but the
Minneapolis Star Tribune's Eric Black has given up: "There are too many moving parts in the Electoral College to make a reliable projection of the electoral votes."
"That means there are more than enough tossup states to turn the final outcome into a rout for either side or a nail-biter that won't be decided until weeks after Election Day. There also are quite plausible scenarios in which there would be an Electoral College tie, throwing the final decision into the House of Representatives."
The daily tracking polls for the presidential race, which are usually good at measuring trends in a campaign, are all over the map and show little consistency. Some show Bush's lead widening:
- Reuters/Zogby has Bush leading Kerry by three points, 48% to 45%. Bush's lead is up one point from yesterday.
- TIPP's Daily Tracking Poll has Bush's lead ina two-man race expanding to four points, 47% to 43%.
But other tracking polls show the race getting closer:
- Rasmussen has the race now tied at 47%, with Bush slightly losing ground. The poll is updated at noon today.
- ABC News/Washington Post also has the race tightening, with Bush's lead shrinking to one point yesterday, 49% to 48%. Today's results will be posted at 5 p.m.
Update: The
Rasmussen poll released at 12 p.m. now has Kerry leading by two points, 48% to 46%.
Sen. John Kerry "has scaled back his television ads in Colorado this week and scrapped a planned campaign stop in Denver," the
Rocky Mountain News reports. Kerry "will refocus his time and ad dollars on more hotly contested swing states such as Ohio and Florida, although campaign officials insist that they will continue to fight for Colorado."
Interestingly, a new
Zogby poll gives Kerry a four point lead over Bush in Colorado.
The
Wall Street Journal highlights "a potential wild card" for Sen. John Kerry is his "strong advantage in editorial-board endorsements, including ones from 27 newspapers that endorsed Mr. Bush in 2000.
"All the major papers in Florida have backed Mr. Kerry, including the Orlando Sentinel, which hasn't endorsed a Democrat for president in 40 years."
Editor and Publisher ups the tally, saying Kerry "has now won endorsements from at least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 -- and another seven onetime Bush papers are sitting this race out."
"With the drama of an injured player coming off the bench in the final moments of the big game, Bill Clinton is emerging today just seven weeks after quadruple bypass surgery to campaign for" Sen. John Kerry, the
New York Times reports. Clinton is scheduled to appear at a Philadelphia rally with Kerry today at lunchtime and a rally in Miami just before dinner.
Yesterday, the
New York Times notes Al Gore "sprinted across six pulpits" to "exhort African-Americans to avenge his disputed 2000 defeat in this deadlocked state."
The presidential race entered its last week with polls showing Sen. John Kerry "leading in key battleground states, President Bush tied or slightly ahead nationally, and both sides arguing they can best provide the leadership America needs during the next four years," the
Boston Globe reports.
The
Washington Post notes Bush "plans to close out the election much as he started it: promoting himself as the war president who can best protect America." Meanwhile, Kerry's message "will be more diffuse, stretching from stem cell research to homeland security and the Iraq war."
The
Los Angeles Times says Kerry "has been urgently pressing two arguments as he sprints around the country: that he's both an affable figure and that he would be a tougher leader than the incumbent."
Archive: October 24, 2004
"Yes, Kerry is liberal. But what's to fear from a liberal president? That he would run big deficits? That he would increase federal spending? That he would expand the power of the federal government over individuals' lives? Nothing Kerry could do could top what President Bush has already done in those realms."
-- The
Des Moines Register's endorsement of Sen. John Kerry.
Here are some notable state polls:
- Hawaii: Bush 46, Kerry 45 (Star-Bulletin)
- Michigan: Bush 47, Kerry 42 (Detroit News)
- Arkansas: Kerry 48, Bush 48 (Arkansas News Bureau)
- Nevada: Bush 49, Kerry 47 (Research 2000)
- Nevada: Bush 45, Kerry 41 (Belden Russonello Stewart)
- Florida: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (St. Petersburgh Times/Miami Herald)
- Missouri: Bush 50, Kerry 45 (Rasmussen)
- Illinois: Kerry 50, Bush 42 (Chicago Tribune)
Archive: October 23, 2004
"Legal disputes over new and old voting equipment, conflicting court rulings on provisional ballots and allegations of voter registration fraud by both parties are increasing the chances the presidential election could be decided in the courts once again," the
San Francisco Chronicle reports.
The
Boston Globe and
Scripps Howard News Service have similar articles.
Update:
Rick Hasen notes a court ruling in Ohio that could be very significant. "Of all the potential post-election litigation scenarios, I have pegged provisional voting controversies as the most likely to lead to such litigation, and Ohio provisional balloting litigation at the very top of the list because I expected this contentious litigation to be ongoing through Election Day and beyond."
Ed Fitzgerald surveyed 66 electoral college projections and finds Kerry has 251-255 electoral votes and Bush has 253-256. "I believe in politics, they call this a tie, which means that as we enter into the home stretch, according to the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, this race is a dead heat."
Our favorite, the
Electoral Vote Predictor, shows earily similar results: Kerry 257, Bush 254.
Meanwhile, the
AP notes the current "dead heat" could swing rapidly to one candidate, and even end in an electoral landslide. "Winner-take-all Electoral College math could convert a modest burst of momentum from President Bush or Sen. John Kerry into a sweep of tossup states -- and a presidential mandate."
Campaigns and Elections gives a favorable review of
The Greatest Communicator: What Ronald Reagan Taught Me about Politics, Leadership, and Life by Dick Wirthlin.
"The most important thing is for the candidate to know what they believe in and then find the best way to communicate that to voters, Wirthlin writes. Reagan had a sophisticated understanding of how to read polling data. The president’s show business days taught him to always be prepared, by rehearsing for a performance, or, in the case of politics, knowing as much about the electorate as possible."
See
Wolf Packs for Truth for a response to the Bush campaign's
new ad: "We were tricked by George W. Bush... They told us we were shooting a Greenpeace commercial!"
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "move into the last days of the presidential contest in agreement that the race has come down to just 11 states, and have laid out plans for a barrage of visits and television advertisements across this final battleground between now and Nov. 2," the
New York Times reports.
Both candidates "will spend virtually all their time - and most of their remaining advertising budgets - in those states."
"Fittingly enough for this year, with polls showing the race deadlocked, five of the states were won by President Bush in 2000 and six by Mr. Gore, the Democratic candidate. And at least 7 of the 11 states are now considered tied in nightly polls being conducted by the campaigns."
The
Washington Post notes "thousands of Americans are now practicing democracy-to-go, leaving home for days, weeks and even months to try to sway votes in the few battlegrounds where they feel they still can make a difference."
Mystery Pollster looks at the battleground race: "The pattern is consistent: In every case Kerry runs better in the battleground states than he does in the overall electorate, although in some cases the difference is quite small."
The
Washington Post endorsed Sen. John Kerry for president. "On balance... we believe Mr. Kerry, with his promise of resoluteness tempered by wisdom and open-mindedness, has staked a stronger claim on the nation's trust to lead for the next four years."
Though President Bush got the endorsement of several newspapers Saturday, including the
New York Post and the
Washington Times,
Editor and Publisher notes he "still trails the challenger in the number of papers backing him, by 59-53, and in the circulation of those papers, 9.5 million to 6.4 million." The
Washington Post endorsement further tips the balance to Kerry.
Here's a
list of states using electronic voting in the November election.
The latest
Newsweek poll shows President Bush maintaining a small lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, 48% to 47%.
The latest
Time magazine poll shows Bush with a 5% lead among likely voters, 51% to 46%.
Here are some notable state polls:
- Iowa: Kerry 46, Bush 45 (Iowa Newspaper Assn)
- Hawaii: Bush 43, Kerry 43 (Honolulu Advertiser)
- Pennsylavnia: Kerry 48, Bush 46 (Morning Call)
Archive: October 22, 2004
A new national poll by
Harvard's Institute of Politics "finds exceptionally high interest in the presidential campaign on college campuses, and turnout among college students is expected to rise dramatically."
The poll also shows that Sen. John Kerry "maintains a 13-point lead" among college students, "and a slightly stronger 17-point advantage among likely voters in key swing states."
Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) has officially endorsed Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry,
KSTP-TV reports.
The
AP notes the odd way the endorsement took place. "The former Minnesota governor made a trip back to the Capitol complex in St. Paul Friday, but defiantly refused to utter a word during the 30-minute news conference."
"Ventura stood next to former Maine Gov. Angus King when King was saying why Kerry should be president. King said Ventura wouldn´t be talking, but had authorized King to answer questions on his behalf."
The Bush campaign's new "
Wolves" ad is a blatant copy of Ronald Reagan's 1984 "
Bear" ad.
The
AP says the ad "implies that terrorists would seize on a Kerry presidency and it seeks to make the case that Bush's opponent doesn't understand the threat terrorists pose to the United States."
Update: Kerry
responds. Meanwhile,
Political Wire has learned that the Kerry campaign is coming out with an ad comparing Bush to an ostrich.
Ad transcript: "The eagle soars high above the earth; the ostrich buries its head in the sand. The eagle knows when it's time to change course; the ostrich just stands in its place. Given these challenging times, shouldn't we be the eagle again?"
Update II: The
response ad is actually a DNC sponsored spot which you can now view online.
A new
Knight Ridder/MSNBC poll showed "Kerry has not locked up the swing states that voted Democratic four years ago. In fact, the poll shows that three presidential debates, millions of dollars in campaign advertising and numerous visits from the candidates have changed few minds in those states in the last month."
Update: A new
Money magazine/ICR poll of registered voters gives Bush a five-point lead over Kerry, 44% to 39%.
Here are some notable state polls:
- Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 43 (Scripps)
- Ohio: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Gallup)
- Pennsylvania: Kerry 47, Bush 41 (Quinnipiac)
- Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Mason-Dixon)
- Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 44 (Survey USA)
- Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 46 (Mason-Dixon)
- Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 43 (Mason-Dixon)
For an excellent roundup of the latest state polls, see
2.004k.com.
The
Electoral Vote Predictor shows the race tied: Kerry 264, Bush 264.
"Groups seeking to minimize Nader's impact are focusing on at least seven states -- Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire -- where Bush and Kerry are in a virtual dead heat," the
Washington Post reports.
"In all of those but Minnesota, according to aggregates of nine recent polls
compiled by the Web site RealClear Politics, Nader's share of the vote exceeds the thin margin separating Bush and Kerry."
As Sen. John Kerry "closes out his campaign for the White House, the
baseball gods have presented some political analysts with a compelling story-line: Kerry's hometown team is competing for the World Series at the same time the Massachusetts senator is attempting to score his own underdog victory in the race for the White House," the
Boston Globe reports.
At the same time, "Kerry and his aides are wrestling with how to take advantage of the confluence of events, and limit the risk in doing so."
"The presidency may be hard work, as President Bush said several times during the first debate," the
Boston Globe reports. "But his campaigning these days appears much less so, with a relatively moderate travel schedule and an unusually narrow list of targeted travel states."
"Always fond of returning to his own bed at the end of the day, Bush has spent six out of the last seven nights at the White House, stepping off the campaign trail some days in time to catch the baseball playoffs. This weekend -- less than two weeks before the election, typically a time for frenzied barnstorming -- Bush is planning to spend two consecutive nights far from any battleground, at his ranch in Crawford, Texas."
Noting neither presidential campaign "gets more blame for bitterness" -- 45% say both have run negative campaigns -- the
Wall Street Journal's
Washington Wire measures the effectiveness of each candidates' attacks.
"Majorities have 'serious concerns' that Kerry changes positions and will raise taxes, echoing Bush charges. Jibes at his 'liberal' views and ability to be commander-in-chief are less effective; most don't have serious concerns about Kerry on either.
"Four Kerry attacks have stuck: Most say Bush hasn't focused on domestic issues, has helped the wealthy with tax cuts, has misled Americans about Iraq, and hasn't admitted mistakes. By 34%-16%, Americans says moral values will improve if Bush is re-elected; by 46%-21%, they say Kerry would make U.S. troops cuts in Iraq more likely."
Archive: October 21, 2004
ABC News "has learned that former Vice President Al Gore will campaign for Sen. John Kerry this weekend in Florida. Kerry made the request of Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, over the weekend in a telephone conversation."
"Plans are also in motion for former President Bill Clinton to campaign for Kerry in Broward County, Fla., on Tuesday."
"If kids could vote, Sen. John Kerry would be the next U.S. president, Nickelodeon network's
Kids Vote indicates,"
UPI reports. Kerry received 57% to Bush's 43%.
"Nickelodeon said it has held the Kids' Vote every election year since 1988, and its voters have correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential campaigns."
Meanwhile,
Scholastic announced the results of the
2004 Scholastic Election Poll and found that students in first through eighth grades prefer Bush, 52% to 47%.
Scholastic claims their poll "has accurately predicted the winner in every Presidential election since 1960."
According to a recent study by
Knight Ridder, President Bush "will end his four-year term
having fulfilled about 46 percent of the promises he made during the 2000 presidential campaign." As a comparison, President Clinton "fulfilled about 66 percent of the 160 commitments that he made during his first presidential campaign."
Despite having Republican control of both houses, "nearly a third of his agenda stalled or died in Congress."
The latest
Pew Research Center poll shows "the presidential race is again extremely close." President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at 45% to 45% among registered voters, and 47% to 47% among likely voters.
The
Economist Poll shows Kerry leading Bush, 48% to 46%.
A
Marist College poll shows Kerry and Bush "neck and neck," with each candidate getting the support of 47% of registered voters.
Update: In the
AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, Kerry is leading Bush 49% to 46%. Most striking: "Some 56% say the country is on the wrong track."
Here are some notable state polls:
- Florida: Bush 45, Kerry 43 (Quinnipiac)
- Wisconsin: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (University of Minnesota)
For more, see the excellent
2.004k.com.
Sen. John Kerry, "bracing for a potential fight over election results, will not hesitate to declare victory Nov. 2 and defend it," the
Boston Globe reports. The Democrat "has a simple strategy for Nov. 3 and beyond: Do not repeat Al Gore's mistakes."
"For a politician whose stock was built on sunny optimism," Sen. John Edwards "is serving up plenty of bare-knuckled rhetoric on the campaign trail these days," the
Washington Post reports.
"Aides to Edwards acknowledge the talk is tougher but say it has been motivated neither by concerns of Democrats nor by fear of falling behind the GOP ticket. The reality, they suggest, is more nuanced."
From the
Boston Globe this morning:
"The greatest comeback in sports history. Period.
"Go ahead, find another one. It’s impossible. This was it. And it was the Red Sox, a team with an extensive history of bad luck who pulled it off.
"It’s better this way, isn’t it? In your wildest dreams, what could be better, more humiliating for your archenemy than to beat them the way the Red Sox did in this ALCS? The Red Sox’ charge from a 3-0 hole to earn a trip to the World Series is infinitely more embarrassing in the Bronx than had they gone in and taken four straight.
"It is redemption, resilience, retribution, and resurgence all wrapped into one unforgettable moment."
Archive: October 20, 2004
The Colorado ballot proposal that would change the way the state awards its electoral votes in presidential elections is losing support, according to a new
Gallup Poll. Just 39% of those surveyed support the change, while 53% are opposed.
A new
Harris Interactive poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry, 48% to 46%, among likely voters. However, a tighter definition of "likely voters" increases Bush's lead.
New polls show that Sen. John Kerry "appears to have reversed his slide among women who are voters and has taken a lead over" Bush "in this crucial category," the
New York Times reports.
Here are some notable state polls:
For more state polls, check
2.004k.com.
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) "plans a high-profile trip to the presidential battleground state of Ohio on the weekend before the Nov. 2 election -- an effort aimed at pumping up GOP voters and leveraging the governor's star power to boost President Bush's chances of success," the
San Francisco Chronicle reports.
What does this mean for Schwarzenegger? Answer
here.
Meanwhile, former President Clinton will hit the campaign trail for Sen. John Kerry in Pennsylvania, the
AP reports.
The
Boston Globe notes that "six second cousins" of President Bush have launched a new web site called
Bush Relatives for Kerry.
The site "consists of personal statements from a group of decidedly liberal second cousins of the president, none of whom knows him personally."
Of course, Bush and Kerry are actually
distant cousins themselves.
Archive: October 19, 2004
The
NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows the presidential race in a dead heat: Kerry 48%, Bush 48%
The
Fox News poll shows a Bush lead: Bush 48%, Kerry 42%
The latest
Zogby Interactive Poll shows Bush leading in seven of the 16 battleground states, "up from the three states he held two weeks ago... But Mr. Bush's leads in several states -- including closely watched Florida -- are tenuous, and rival Sen. John Kerry managed to hang on to big, electoral-vote-rich states including Pennsylvania and Michigan."
Meanwhile, there are new state polls:
- Ohio: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Rasmussen)
- Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 44 (Fox News)
- Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 47 (Survey USA)
- Ohio: Kerry 50, Bush 47 (ABC News)
Here are the latest electoral vote tallies which are updated daily (270 needed to win):
Reuters/Zogby shows the presidential race tied at 45%, with 7% still undecided.
TIPP also shows a tie at 45% in a two-man race, but gives Bush a 2 point lead in a three-man race.
Rasmussen has Bush leading by just one point, 48% to 47%.
ABC News/Washington Post has Bush leading by 5 points, 51% to 46%.
"Two weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie," according to the latest
New York Times/CBS News Poll. Among registered voters, both candidates each have 46%. Among likely voters, Bush has 47%, with Kerry at 46%.
The most stiking finding: "Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure."
The new
Democracy Corps survey shows Kerry leading Bush 50% to 47%.
Update:
Josh Marshall has the inside scoop on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out later today. "I hear it's got welcome news for Kerry. Dead even among likely voters."
Update II: A
Political Wire reader emails to say the forthcoming NBC/WSJ poll has Bush up 48% to 46%.
Here are some notable state polls:
- New Hampshire: Kerry 46, Bush 41 (Suffolk University)
- Florida: Kerry 50, Bush 49 (Survey USA)
- Pennsylvania: Kerry 51, Bush 45 (Survey USA)
- Arkansas: Bush 51, Kerry 46 (Survey USA)
- North Carolina: Bush 50, Kerry 47 (Survey USA)
- Colorado: Bush 51, Kerry 45 (Gallup)
- Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 47 (Rasmussen)
- New Jersey: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Quinnipiac)
- New Jersey: Kerry 51, Bush 38 (Star-Ledger)
- Ohio: Kerry 48, Bush 46 (University of Cincinnati)
- Oregon: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Research 2000)
- Oregon: Bush 48, Kerry 43 (Riley Research)
As most
Political Wire readers know, we spend a lot of time analyzing polling methodologies trying to make a determination whether the polls we report are accurate or not. But a key finding from a recent
Middle Tennessee State University poll is much more startling:
"A close look at five key domestic agenda items suggests that Tennesseans as a group hardly qualify as well-informed and ideologically consistent policy wonks. On four of the five issues, only about half of a given candidate’s supporters hold opinions consistent with those of the candidate."
The Votemaster notes it's "not considered politically correct to point out that an awful lot of voters don't have a clue what they are talking about."
The
Cato Institute looked at the question last month:
"It is tempting to conclude that voters must be lazy or stupid. But even a smart and hardworking person can rationally decide not to pay much attention to politics. No matter how well-informed a person is, his or her vote has only a tiny chance of affecting the outcome of an election. Since that vote is almost certain not to be decisive, even a citizen who cares greatly about the outcome has almost no incentive to acquire sufficient knowledge to make an informed choice.
"Acquiring significant amounts of political knowledge to be a more informed voter is, in most situations, simply irrational. But the rational decisions of individuals create a dysfunctional collective outcome in which the majority of the electorate is dangerously ill-informed."
Noting President Bush's
speech yesterday, the
New York Times says it "was more than an incremental escalation of his attacks on Mr. Kerry. It was a change in tone to a far more incendiary characterization of the senator as a man who would undercut American defenses, surrender its military decisions to other nations and treat terrorism as a disease in need of treatment rather than an enemy force in need of evisceration."
The
Wall Street Journal says Bush "is trying to reinforce Americans' hesitancy to change leaders in a time of war... In many ways, the campaign's final two weeks have turned into a contest between voters' desires to seek change or avoid risk."
The
Boston Globe notes Kerry "plans a formal rejoinder to Bush's New Jersey speech" today in Iowa.
These videos aren't supposed to make it into wide circulation, but as they say, I guess the Internet has changed everything.
Watch Sen. John Edwards fix his hair.
Sen. John Kerry "did a better job than President Bush in the debates in shoring up support among likely voters already leaning his way," according to a new
Zogby Interactive online poll of likely voters.
However, a
Washington Post survey found Bush "has emerged from the debates holding a slender lead over" Kerry, "and despite the Democratic nominee's strong performances, the nationally televised confrontations did not significantly change the way voters view the two candidates."
Archive: October 18, 2004
Rick Hasen looks at "five nightmare scenarios for how the election could remain in doubt after Nov. 2 and how all of them raise the possibility of court intervention."
"The chances of post-election litigation affecting the outcome of this election are in fact small -- probably well under 10 percent. It is not that Election Day problems are unlikely -- I think they are guaranteed—but they would have to occur in a place where the resolution of the problem could affect the outcome of the election. Think battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Colorado."
Nonetheless, "the Florida debacle" in 2000 "and our reactions to it have increased, not decreased, the chances of a post-election problem."
Ron Brownstein has good advice for poll watchers: "While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in the final surveys before election day.
"Analysts watch the incumbent's numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers."
"By that standard, the race today is teetering right on the knife's edge, though perhaps tilting slightly toward Bush after he regained the lead in five separate national polls released over the weekend. More importantly, for the first time since the debates, Bush in three of the latest surveys cracked the 50% level in support -- the best news GOP strategists have seen in weeks."
Editor's Note: For more, see our earlier note on the
50 Percent Rule.
This morning's
Reuters/Zogby tracking poll shows Sen. John Kerry pulling into a statistical dead heat with President Bush "in a seesawing battle for the White House." Kerry and Bush are now deadlocked at 45%.
The
Rasmussen Tracking Poll also has the race tied, at 47% apiece.
The
TIPP tracking poll shows Bush leading 49% to 45%.
Here are some notable state polls:
Reviewing the electoral vote tallies:
Accusing President Bush "of plotting a 'January surprise' to cut Social Security benefits," Sen. John Kerry told voters that Bush's plans "could cost them as much as 45 percent of their monthly checks," the
New York Times reports.
The
Washington Post says Kerry "based this allegation on a secondhand, unattributed
account of a private speech Bush reportedly delivered to Republican supporters in September."
Interestingly, the
Boston Globe notes that Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman "did not confirm or dispute" the quote. Only later did a Bush campaign spokesman begin "contacting reporters to state flatly that Bush never said the word 'privatizing' at the donors' lunch, nor ever would, insisting that it misstates his proposals and is politically loaded."
Archive: October 17, 2004
"Experts say the 2004 election is fast becoming, in its final weeks, the most litigious, lawyer-fraught vote in history," the
New York Times reports.
"The two sides have been mobilizing for months, but in recent days the battle has been joined on a number of fronts... The clashes have followed a familiar script. Republicans, long suspicious of urban political machines and worried about record levels of new registrations in many swing states, say Democrats have abetted fraud. Democrats, who cite a bitter history of efforts to deny minority and low-income voters the ballot, contend that Republicans are trying to suppress the vote."
To aide in these legal efforts, the
Los Angeles Times notes "thousands of observers will be on hand to detail incidents that could affect votes... The largest effort is being mounted by a coalition of 60 liberal and independent organizations that includes churches, civic groups, unions and minority rights groups; it has created a massive computerized tracking system to follow possible election day breakdowns."
The
Denver Post notes "armies of lawyers" will be on hand to spot irregularities.
Ruy Teixeira highlights some of the more interesting findings from the latest
Newsweek poll:
- Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40
- First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 21, 57-36
- Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43
As we noted earlier, as much as
30 percent of the electorate may vote early in this election.
"Legal restrictions are preventing political pollsters from reaching millions of Americans this election cycle because they rely exclusively on cell phones,"
The Hill reports.
"The inability to reach such voters, mainly young people, is contributing to the growing perception that phone surveys are skewed and inaccurate and should become a thing of the past."
Mystery Pollster investigates the impact on the latest polls. Earlier, we ran an email from pollster John Zogby that
claimed the use of cell phones was a growing issue, but defended the reliability of telephone polling.
The new
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry 52% to 44% among likely voters. Among registered voters, Bush leads 49% to 46%.
However, the latest
Democracy Corps survey shows Kerry leading 49% to 46%.
Meanwhile, the
Reuters/Zogby tracking poll shows Kerry shrinking the gap behind Bush to just 2 points. The
Rasmussen tracking poll also has Bush leading by 2 points.
The
ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll comes out at 5 p.m.
Archive: October 16, 2004
The
New York Times endorses John Kerry for president:
"Voting for president is a leap of faith. A candidate can explain his positions in minute detail and wind up governing with a hostile Congress that refuses to let him deliver. A disaster can upend the best-laid plans. All citizens can do is mix guesswork and hope, examining what the candidates have done in the past, their apparent priorities and their general character. It's on those three grounds that we enthusiastically endorse John Kerry for president."
Editor and Publisher has the complete newspaper endoresment list, noting the NYT nod "gives Kerry a 15-13 edge on President Bush but widens his margin in the combined circulation of the papers that back him from 3-1 to nearly 5-1, with an edge of about 4 million to 850,000."
Update: The
Chicago Tribune endorses Bush. "He has the steadfastness, and the strength, to execute the one mission no American generation has ever failed."
"In the final days before the election, the campaigns and the outside groups supporting them are taking an already unusually intense and confrontational advertising war into grim new territory, with some of the most vivid and evocative images and messages seen in presidential commercials in a generation," the
New York Times reports.
At work "are direct appeals to fear." President Bush's campaign "and supportive groups making the case that a vote for" Sen. John Kerry "is a vote for insecurity at home, and liberal groups and Mr. Kerry using commercials to make the case that Mr. Bush's Iraq policy has caused needless deaths that will continue if he stays in office."
According to a new
Time magazine poll, President Bush has a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry, 48% to 46%, among likely voters. The most important finding: "Almost 1 in 3 voters (30%) said the debates made them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to only 17% more likely to vote for Bush."
However, there's better news for Bush in the new
Newsweek poll, which shows the president's lead growing from last week to 50% to 45%, among likely voters. However, among swing voters Kerry still leads 39% to 33%, with 28% still undecided.
Here are some notable recent state polls:
- Florida: Kerry 48, Bush 44 (Insider Advantage)
- Florida: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Washington Post)
- Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Rasmussen)
- New Jersey: Kerry 44, Bush 42 (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Archive: October 15, 2004
"America's military service men and women and their families are convinced that the country is going in the right direction, like George W. Bush much more than the civilian population does, support the war in Iraq more strongly and are more positive about the economy," the
National Annenberg Election Survey shows.
"The Pentagon is making intense efforts to get troops on active duty to vote this year, and 94 percent of the military sample said they intended to vote in the presidential election, compared to 85 percent of the civilian population."
GOP pollster Frank Luntz, writing in the
Financial Times, sounds the alarms for the Bush campaign:
"Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit.
"Can Mr. Bush turn the tide in just 18 days? Absolutely, but his candidacy must address voters who still harbour economic and national security concerns. But that requires a fundamental shift in the president’s strategy and message. Asserting that the economy is strong and Iraq a success is simply not credible to the majority of Americans or to the stubborn 5 per cent who remain uncommitted."
President Bush "opened a four-point lead" -- 48% to 44% -- on Sen. John Kerry yesterday, according to a
Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. "An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."
The
Rasmussen tracking poll shows Bush leading 49% to 45.5%.
The
TIPP Tracking Poll shows Bush leading 47% to 44%.
The
ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll will be released at 5:00 p.m.
The
Wall Street Journal's
Washington Wire notes Democratic hopes "dim for snatching four of Colorado's nine electoral votes through a state constitutional amendment providing proportional allocation of the state's presidential vote, instead of usual winner-take-all. A blow for the amendment's already waning chances of passage was Democratic Senate candidate Salazar's decision to join Republican Gov. Owens in opposition."
"Despite competition from two baseball playoff games, the third and final presidential debate, held Wednesday night in Tempe, drew more than 51 million viewers -- more than watched any of the presidential debates in 2000 or 1996," the
New York Times reports.
Meanwhile, the
Wall Street Journal notes that "it increasingly appears the debates this year are the most significant ones since the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ronald Reagan encounter."
"The preliminary verdict of the effect of this year's debates, echoed publicly by Democratic strategists and privately by Republicans, is clear: After entering the two-week debate season with a national lead, Mr. Bush is locked in a dead heat, with momentum favoring Mr. Kerry. That partly is because Mr. Kerry helped himself with a smooth and confident effort."
After
endorsing President Bush earlier this week, the National Rifle Association "is running an aggressive campaign against" Sen. John Kerry this year in several battleground states, the
Boston Globe reports.
"By Election Day, the group will have spent $20 million on television spots, billboards, radio advertising, leaflets, and district-by-district voter mobilization in the hopes of convincing the NRA's 4 million members -- and the rest of the 4 in 10 Americans who own guns -- that a Kerry administration threatens their Second Amendment rights."
President Bush "made a rare appearance in the press cabin of Air Force One en route to Las Vegas on Thursday morning to say he remains confident about his chances, despite some instant polls that indicated Kerry had won the third debate and national polls that show the race virtually even," the
Washington Post reports.
"Bush advisers said little about this unusual visit with reporters, the first time Bush has ventured to the back of the plane since the early days of his presidency."
Archive: October 14, 2004
A new poll by the
Scripps Survey Research Center shows Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush, 50% to 45%, among registered voters. Among those surveyed, only 43% approve of the job Bush has done as president and 53% say it's "time for someone new."
Interestingly, when looking only at people who say they "always" or "almost always" vote, Bush leads Kerry, 48% to 47%. And among those who say they are "very certain" of their vote and who "always" participate in major elections, Bush leads Kerry, 52% to 48%.
Meanwhile, the latest tracking polls show a dead heat:
ABC News/Washington Post (tie),
Zogby (Bush +1),
Rasmussen (Bush +2.2)
Here are some notable state polls:
- Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 47 (Rasmussen)
- Arkansas: Bush 46, Kerry 45 (Zogby)
For more state polls, see the excellent
2.004k.com.
Cameron Marlow analyzes the transcript of the third presidential debate with his
neat tool:
"Kerry's language in this debate focused on three phrases: minimum wage (8 mentions), health insurance (6 mentions), and social security (6 mentions), a recognizable platform for a democratic candidate.
"Bush's language on the other hand was less issue focused with the most popular phrases of my opponent (7), four years (6), and best way (5), a seemingly more defensive tone."
Vice President Dick Cheney's wife, Lynne, accused Sen. John Kerry "of 'a cheap and tawdry political trick' and said he 'is not a good man' after he brought up" daughter Mary Cheney's homosexuality during the debate, the
Washington Post reports.
Update: The
Log Cabin Republicans issued this statement: "For Sen. Kerry and Sen. Edwards, you do not need to talk about the Vice President's daughter in order to discuss your positions on gay and lesbian issues. For President Bush and Karl Rove, you have a moral obligation to stop using gay and lesbian families as a political wedge issue."
The Christian Coalition "is distributing 30 million voter guides that use conservative catch-phrases such as 'unrestricted abortion on demand' and 'affirmative action programs that provide preferential treatment' in detailing the positions of the two presidential candidates," the
AP reports.
Archive: October 13, 2004
A
CNN/Gallup instant poll finds Kerry the clear winner, 52% to 39%.
A
CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate found Kerry won, 39% to 25%, with 36% calling it a tie.
An
ABC News Instant Poll of voters who watched the debate also found Kerry the winner, 42% to 41%. (Note: The survey group was 38% Republican, 30% Democrat.)
Update: A
Democracy Corps survey found Kerry "won the final presidential debate and produced the biggest shift yet in the actual vote for president." Kerry moved into a 3-point lead over Bush, 50% to 47%, after the debate. The survey participants began the evening evenly split, 48 to 48 percent, as the country as a whole.
Update II:
Mystery Pollster says that "despite the small sample sizes, the consistency across surveys increases my