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January 19, 2004


What Happened to Dean?

In an initial look at the results in Iowa, it appears that at least three major factors contributed to Howard Dean's plunge from assumed front-runner to disappointed third place finisher.
  • Dean's "outsider campaign" had trouble assimilating insiders. His plunge coincided almost perfectly with endorsements from Al Gore, the ultimate insider, and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), the most coveted endorsement in the state.
  • Negative ads by Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt worked perfectly in that nearly destroyed each other.
  • The capture of Saddam Hussein made the pro-war votes by Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards more palatable to many Democratic voters. In addition, Dean's first reaction to the news raised many eyebrows.












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