With six tracking polls following the New Hampshire primary, I thought it would be interesting to ask Dick Bennett, head of the New Hampshire-based American Research Group, for guidance in how best to use them.
PW: How should we interpret tracking polls?
DB: It is very difficult to measure and understand all the components that go into voters deciding to actually vote for particular candidates. To me, the best use of the tracking polls is to match candidate movement with the events in the politcal environment. Does an ad work? Is local press coverage impacting the race? Is national coverage making any numbers move? What happens when a candidate does something really stupid?
PW: What are the key events we should watch in New Hampshire over the next week that have the potential to cause a big bump in the tracking polls?
DB: Based on what voters are telling us this year, the debate tonight is extremely important. Almost half of likely Democratic primary voters tell us that they could pick a different candidate by Election Day and many tell us they will watch the debate to make their final choices. There will be a big bump if any candidate can make a clear, concise, easy-to-understand argument as to why he can defeat George W. Bush in November.
Also, any big mistakes such as Dean's Iowa concession speech could cause some candidates to drop.
PW: Anything else we should be watching?
DB: Television advertising, candidate direct mail, campaign calls, and local press coverage are important to watch in the final days of the campaign. It is difficult for people outside of the state (or media markets) to get a feel for this, but it can have an impact on the outcome. Most of the negative campaigning is being conducted by mail this year and that mail will hit Friday or Saturday. In 2000, the McCain campaign targeted Republicans with some fairly aggressive calls on the final days the campaign and they had a major impact on moving Republicans to McCain on primary day.
The weather on primary day is important as well. Snow and cold are not problems, but an ice storm is a problem, especially for older voters. In 1984, Gary Hart's margin over Walter Mondale benefited from what turned into an ice storm on primary day because it kept some older Mondale voters away from the polls.
