There's another must-read piece from Ryan Lizza in this week's New Republic. Lizza examines John Kerry's ability to woo "the military vote," something that he argues "is actually a misnomer" because it suggests "a monolithic group of voters."
The truth is "there is very little data available about how Americans tied to the military actually cast their ballots. Logistically, it's difficult to survey troops serving abroad, and, historically, exit polls at home haven't asked questions about military service."
Kerry's advisers "divide the military vote up into four basic categories--current service members, reservists and National Guard members, military families, and veterans--each with a varying degree of potential for the Democratic nominee this year."
"The least fertile territory for Kerry is the first of these groups, the 1.4 million active-duty soldiers. What little evidence is available suggests that these men and women remain pro-Bush and culturally alienated from the Democratic Party."
"Next, there are the 1.2 million men and women in the National Guard and Reserves. Here, too, the data is spotty and anecdotal, but Kerry may have an opening."
"Kerry may have a greater opportunity still pursuing the votes not of soldiers themselves but of their families."
"But the bloc of "military voters" that might have the greatest Democratic potential is the largest of all: veterans. There are some 27 million veterans nationwide, making up about 20 percent of the overall electorate. Kerry has done more to target them than any other military subgroup."
