Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

May 24, 2004

Kerry Leads In Battleground States

Results of the first Battleground States Poll, conducted by Zogby Interactive for the Wall Street Journal, show Sen. John Kerry leading in 12 of the 16 battleground states, including five states that President Bush won in 2000. Bush leads in four states, including one -- Iowa -- that voted Democratic in 2000. "The 12 states in which Mr. Kerry leads have a total of 148 votes in the Electoral College, while the four in which Mr. Bush is ahead have 29 electoral votes."

"Mr. Bush won eight of these 16 battlegrounds in his 2000 victory, but if the election were to be held tomorrow, it looks unlikely that the president would fare as well. But differences in one-quarter of the states where Mr. Kerry leads -- Florida, Missouri and Nevada -- fall within the polls' margins of error, while those of half of Mr. Bush's states -- Tennessee and West Virginia -- do. If one discounts battleground victories that fall within the margin of error, Mr. Kerry carries nine states and 105 electoral votes, and Mr. Bush two states and 13 electoral votes."

Update: Kos points out that the polling "is being done over the Internet. Hence it should be easily open to manipulation. Take with a GIANT grain of salt."

Here is Zogby's response: "Participation in the polls is controlled and the results are weighted to make them representative of what a poll of the overall U.S. voting population would find."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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