June 01, 2004


The Era of Landslides Is Over

Though I recently compared this year's presidential election to the 1980 campaign, I stand by my earlier prediction that no one should expect a landslide for either George Bush or John Kerry.

The key difference between then and now is intense partisianship. A forthcoming paper by John Kenneth White and John Zogby puts numbers to the phenomenon:
"Today, Bush leads Kerry among self-described Republicans by 74 points. But among Democrats, Kerry beats Bush by 75 points. Only 7 percent of Republicans say they support Kerry; just 9 percent of Democrats back Bush. This is quite unlike 1980. In May of that year, the Gallup Organization found only 55 percent of Democrats approving of Jimmy Carter’s job performance. That was a harbinger of things to come, as one-in-four Democrats deserted Carter to back Reagan in November."
Since the culture wars began in the early 1990s -- and the nation divided into socially-conservative Red States and socially-liberal Blue States -- neither party has held a firm and reliable majority of the vote. As a result, the winners of the last three presidential elections won with less than 50%, something that hasn't happened in more than a century.

As any Political Wire reader knows, the early strategies of the Bush and Kerry campaigns center on mobilizing their partisan bases to vote. Record amounts of money will be spent to get these supporters to the polls in November. Unless there is a dramatic development rallying the country around one candidate for national security concerns -- as happened during the Cold War years and resulted in five landslide elections -- it's likely the next president will again be elected with less than half the vote.


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