July 27, 2004


How Big a Bounce?

Nearly everyone is expecting Sen. John Kerry to leave the Democratic National Convention in better shape than he came in. In recent history, most presidential candidates get a "convention bounce" of some sort, and Kerry should be no different. But there are two key factors that suggest it might be smaller than normal this time around:
Kerry picked his running mate early. The selection of Sen. John Edwards gave Kerry a small but still significant bump in the polls. Before the Edwards pick, Kerry trailed President Bush in 6 of the last 7 polls. Since then, he's led in 16 of 20. As a result, part of the traditional convention bounce is already accounted for in the latest polls.

The nomination process was much faster this time. Kerry clinched the nomination early and the two campaigns engaged each other soon after with unprecedented advertising buys. At convention time, there simply aren't as many undecided voters as in previous years.
A memo from Bush pollster Matthew Dowd several weeks ago set expectations for a big bounce. Unless Democrats do something dramatic in the next few days, they better start altering expectations.


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