Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

August 23, 2004

The Debate Factor

According to modern polling data, presidential debates appear crucial in determining the winner -- particularly in close elections. Since 1960, the Gallup poll conducted just after the debates accurately predicted the winner of the election each time. On three occasions -- 1960, 1980 and 2000 -- the ultimate loser actually led in the pre-debate poll.

Of course, it's not necessarily the technical winner of the debate that gets the bump in the polls. In most cases, like the 2000 election, it's the candidate that does better than expectations that is the real winner. Low expectations is a great asset in presidential debates.

For more on this year's presidential debates, see the Commission on Presidential Debates website.

Comments (View)
The Debate Factor (via @pwire)Tweet |

Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

PRAISE

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom -- nicely packaged, constantly updated... What political junkie could ask for more?"

-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

"I love Political Wire. It is a one stop shopping site for all the political information I need. It makes me sound brilliant so naturally I like it!"

-- Dick Morris, political consultant

"I rely on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It's an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading."

-- Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

BELTWAY BUZZ

• CQ Politics
  
• First Read
  
• The Hotline
  
• The Note
• The Page
• Washington Wire
  
• Mike Allen's Playbook
• Politico
  
• Roll Call
  
• The Hill
  
• CNN Political Ticker
  
• The Swamp
  
• The Fix
  
• Washington Whispers
  
• Fish Bowl DC
  

ANALYSIS

• Marc Ambinder
  
• Charlie Cook
  
• Craig Crawford
  
• Ezra Klein
  
• Rick Hasen
  
• Henrick Hertzberg
  
• Jonathan Martin
• Stu Rothenberg
  
• Ben Smith
• Andrew Sullivan
  

MORE BUZZ

• Huffington Post
  
• Talking Points Memo
  
• Daily Kos
  
• Real Clear Politics
  
• Wonkette
  
• Instapundit
  
• Drudge Report
  
• America Blog
  
• Politics1
  
• Ballot Access News
  

POLLS

• AP/Ipsos
  
• Cook/RT Strategies
  
• Democracy Corps
  
• Diageo/Hotline
  
• Electoral-Vote.com
  
• Five Thirty Eight
  
• Gallup
  
• Harris
  
• Marist
  
• Monmouth
  
• Pew Research
  
• Polling Report
  
• Pollster.com
  
• Public Policy Polling
  
• Rasmussen
  
• Research 2000
  
• Survey USA
  
• Quinnipiac
  
• Zogby
  

CONTACT

Send your tips, memos, comments and suggestions to