The Debate Factor -- Political Wire

The Debate Factor

According to modern polling data, presidential debates appear crucial in determining the winner -- particularly in close elections. Since 1960, the Gallup poll conducted just after the debates accurately predicted the winner of the election each time. On three occasions -- 1960, 1980 and 2000 -- the ultimate loser actually led in the pre-debate poll.

Of course, it's not necessarily the technical winner of the debate that gets the bump in the polls. In most cases, like the 2000 election, it's the candidate that does better than expectations that is the real winner. Low expectations is a great asset in presidential debates.

For more on this year's presidential debates, see the Commission on Presidential Debates website.

August 23, 2004

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Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

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