The latest George Washington University Battleground Poll shows Sen. John Kerry with a two point lead over President Bush, 49% to 47%, in a two-way race where the candidate is named. Just 4% of the electorate remains undecided. As this is billed as a "bi-partisan poll," strategic analysis is provided by Celinda Lake for Democrats and by Ed Goeas for Republicans.
Update: The latest Fox News Poll shows the presidential race is essentially tied with Kerry holding a one-point lead over Bush among likely voters.
Update II: A new USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll shows Bush leading Kerry 50% to 47% among likely voters, with Kerry leading Bush 48% to 47% among registered voters.
Update III: The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Bush leading, 47% to 45%, "despite troubling numbers for the president on the economy, Iraq, and the nation’s direction."