Most Forecasts Predict Bush Win

"The vast majority of political scientists and economists who forecast elections based on computer models will be presenting their papers at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association this week in Chicago, and they are projecting a Bush victory over Sen. John Kerry -- in a landslide, some say."

Charlie Cook, however, is not so sure.

The reason? "To my mind, the most important figure to emerge in recent days was the revised second-quarter GDP figure, which dropped to 2.8 percent, the slowest growth rate in over a year and the lowest since the first quarter of 2003... The current economic growth rate is a lot closer to the rate in years when incumbents lose than it is to years when incumbents win."

According to Washington Whispers, pollster John Zogby also sees an uphill battle for Bush, despite his recent rise in the polls. "His surveys show that while 96 percent of Gore voters plan to vote for Sen. John Kerry, only 89 percent of those who voted for Bush in 2000 are currently committed to supporting him again in November. Bush, the way Zogby figures it, will need to boost that to 95 percent to win in November."


August 29, 2004


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