First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.
Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.
Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.
To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.
This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.
