In the weighted national popular vote, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 46%.
In states where there is a clear lead outside the margin of error, Bush has 17 states with 133 electoral votes; Kerry has 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
In states where there is any lead, Bush has 29 states with 253 electoral votes; Kerry has 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.