Where The Race Stands -- Political Wire

Where The Race Stands

The American Research Group conducted polls in all 50 states. Here are the key findings:

In the weighted national popular vote, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 46%.
In states where there is a clear lead outside the margin of error, Bush has 17 states with 133 electoral votes; Kerry has 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
In states where there is any lead, Bush has 29 states with 253 electoral votes; Kerry has 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Prior to these polls, the Electoral Vote Predictor had the race with Kerry at 269, Bush at 253.

The Intrade State Futures show Bush at 284, Kerry at 222.

A new Zogby electoral tally shows Kerry at 264, Bush at 241.

September 22, 2004

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Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

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