Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

September 22, 2004

Where The Race Stands

The American Research Group conducted polls in all 50 states. Here are the key findings:

• In the weighted national popular vote, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 46%.
• In states where there is a clear lead outside the margin of error, Bush has 17 states with 133 electoral votes; Kerry has 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
• In states where there is any lead, Bush has 29 states with 253 electoral votes; Kerry has 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
• Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
• Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
• Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Prior to these polls, the Electoral Vote Predictor had the race with Kerry at 269, Bush at 253.

The Intrade State Futures show Bush at 284, Kerry at 222.

A new Zogby electoral tally shows Kerry at 264, Bush at 241.

Comments (View) Share

Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

PRAISE FOR POLITICAL WIRE

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom -- nicely packaged, constantly updated... What political junkie could ask for more?"

-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

"I love Political Wire. It is a one stop shopping site for all the political information I need. It makes me sound brilliant so naturally I like it!"

-- Dick Morris, political consultant

"I rely on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It's an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading."

-- Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

BELTWAY BUZZ

• CQ Politics
  
• First Read
  
• The Hotline
  
• The Note
• The Page
• Washington Wire
  
• Mike Allen's Playbook
• Politico
  
• Roll Call
  
• The Hill
  
• CNN Political Ticker
  
• The Swamp
  
• The Fix
  
• Washington Whispers
  
• Fish Bowl DC
  

ANALYSIS

• Marc Ambinder
  
• Charlie Cook
  
• Craig Crawford
  
• Ezra Klein
  
• Rick Hasen
  
• Jonathan Martin
• Stu Rothenberg
  
• Ben Smith
• Andrew Sullivan
  

MORE BUZZ

• Huffington Post
  
• Talking Points Memo
  
• Daily Kos
  
• Real Clear Politics
  
• Wonkette
  
• Instapundit
  
• Drudge Report
  
• America Blog
  
• Politics1
  
• Ballot Access News
  

POLLS

• AP/Ipsos
  
• Cook/RT Strategies
  
• Democracy Corps
  
• Diageo/Hotline
  
• Electoral-Vote.com
  
• Five Thirty Eight
  
• Gallup
  
• Harris
  
• Marist
  
• Monmouth
  
• Pew Research
  
• Polling Report
  
• Pollster.com
  
• Public Policy Polling
  
• Rasmussen
  
• Research 2000
  
• Survey USA
  
• Quinnipiac
  
• Zogby
  

CONTACT

Send your tips, memos, comments and suggestions to