Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

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September 30, 2004

New Polls

President Bush "has a 5-percentage-point lead" over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, "but nearly one-fifth say the candidate debates that begin tonight could affect their decision," a new Los Angeles Times poll has found. Bush leads 51% to 46%, with both men "holding at least 90% of the voters from their own party." (See the extended poll analysis.)

However, Bush "still faces widespread doubts about many of his central initiatives. A narrow majority says the situation in Iraq was "not worth" the war, and a solid plurality believes that the president's policies have hurt, rather than helped, the economy. These doubts could provide the senator from Massachusetts with openings in the campaign's final weeks."

The latest Harris Poll shows Bush with a two-point lead over Kerry among likely voters, 48% to 46%.

Here are the latest state polls:

• Michigan: Kerry 48, Bush 46 (Free Press - RV)
• Michigan: Bush 50, Kerry 48 (Free Press - LV)
• North Carolina: Bush 52, Kerry 43 (Mason-Dixon)
• Virginia: Bush 49, Kerry 43 (Mason-Dixon)
• Connecticut: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Quinnipiac)

Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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