Pollster Guy Molyneux writes in the American Prosect that "an incumbent who can't break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he's ahead."
"In incumbent elections, the incumbent's percentage of the vote is a far better indicator of the state of the race than the spread. In fact, the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job."
Mystery Pollster agrees and provides even more evidence for the "incumbent rule."
October 4, 2004
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