October 11, 2004


Tracking Poll Update

If you need more proof this election is going to be hard to predict, the major tracking polls appear to be moving in opposite directions. ABC News/Washington Post has Bush leading Kerry by 6% and Rasmussen has Bush ahead by 4%. But Zogby shows Kerry beating Bush by 3%. And the USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll shows Kerry leading by 2%.

However, the political futures markets are more consistent. The Intrade and Iowa winner-take-all markets both have Bush favored to win.

Meanwhile, Mystery Pollster looks at averages of recent polls and concludes "it is now clear that the race has narrowed since first debate."


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