Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 13, 2004

New Polls

The latest Economist Poll has Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush, 47% to 45%. Another interesting finding is that 49% of those who have seen the photograph of the bulge in President Bush's jacket from the first debate think he was wearing a radio transmitter, though only 23% of those survey have seen it.

Here are a few key state polls:

• Oregon: Kerry 49, Bush 44 (ARG)
• Iowa: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (ARG)
• Iowa: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Chicago Tribune)
• Iowa: Kerry 50, Bush 46 (Rasmussen)
• Wisconsin: Kerry 47, Bush 43 (Chicago Tribune)
• Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Chicago Tribune)
• Minnesota: Kerry 48, Bush 43 (Star Tribune)
• Minnesota: Kerry 45, Bush 43 (Chicago Tribune)

For a complete listing of state polls, see 2.004k.com. The latest hourly projections from this database show Kerry with a 54% probability of winning the election.

However, the Electoral Vote Predictor still has Bush winning: Kerry 228, Bush 291.

The Iowa Electronic Markets political futures also predict a Bush win.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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