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October 13, 2004


New Polls

The latest Economist Poll has Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush, 47% to 45%. Another interesting finding is that 49% of those who have seen the photograph of the bulge in President Bush's jacket from the first debate think he was wearing a radio transmitter, though only 23% of those survey have seen it.

Here are a few key state polls:
  • Oregon: Kerry 49, Bush 44 (ARG)
  • Iowa: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (ARG)
  • Iowa: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Chicago Tribune)
  • Iowa: Kerry 50, Bush 46 (Rasmussen)
  • Wisconsin: Kerry 47, Bush 43 (Chicago Tribune)
  • Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Chicago Tribune)
  • Minnesota: Kerry 48, Bush 43 (Star Tribune)
  • Minnesota: Kerry 45, Bush 43 (Chicago Tribune)
For a complete listing of state polls, see 2.004k.com. The latest hourly projections from this database show Kerry with a 54% probability of winning the election.

However, the Electoral Vote Predictor still has Bush winning: Kerry 228, Bush 291.

The Iowa Electronic Markets political futures also predict a Bush win.














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