Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 19, 2004

New Polls

"Two weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie," according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. Among registered voters, both candidates each have 46%. Among likely voters, Bush has 47%, with Kerry at 46%.

The most stiking finding: "Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure."

The new Democracy Corps survey shows Kerry leading Bush 50% to 47%.

Update: Josh Marshall has the inside scoop on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out later today. "I hear it's got welcome news for Kerry. Dead even among likely voters."

Update II: A Political Wire reader emails to say the forthcoming NBC/WSJ poll has Bush up 48% to 46%.

Here are some notable state polls:

• New Hampshire: Kerry 46, Bush 41 (Suffolk University)
• Florida: Kerry 50, Bush 49 (Survey USA)
• Pennsylvania: Kerry 51, Bush 45 (Survey USA)
• Arkansas: Bush 51, Kerry 46 (Survey USA)
• North Carolina: Bush 50, Kerry 47 (Survey USA)
• Colorado: Bush 51, Kerry 45 (Gallup)
• Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 47 (Rasmussen)
• New Jersey: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Quinnipiac)
• New Jersey: Kerry 51, Bush 38 (Star-Ledger)
• Ohio: Kerry 48, Bush 46 (University of Cincinnati)
• Oregon: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Research 2000)
• Oregon: Bush 48, Kerry 43 (Riley Research)

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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