Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 22, 2004

New Polls

A new Knight Ridder/MSNBC poll showed "Kerry has not locked up the swing states that voted Democratic four years ago. In fact, the poll shows that three presidential debates, millions of dollars in campaign advertising and numerous visits from the candidates have changed few minds in those states in the last month."

Update: A new Money magazine/ICR poll of registered voters gives Bush a five-point lead over Kerry, 44% to 39%.

Here are some notable state polls:

• Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 43 (Scripps)
• Ohio: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Gallup)
• Pennsylvania: Kerry 47, Bush 41 (Quinnipiac)
• Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Mason-Dixon)
• Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 44 (Survey USA)
• Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 46 (Mason-Dixon)
• Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 43 (Mason-Dixon)

For an excellent roundup of the latest state polls, see 2.004k.com.

The Electoral Vote Predictor shows the race tied: Kerry 264, Bush 264.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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