October 25, 2004


Political Scientists Say Bush Will Win

"Presidential election forecasting models developed by political scientists predict a Bush victory in the hotly contested 2004 presidential election," according to the latest issue of PS: Political Science and Politics.

"Nine distinguished and nonpartisan political scientists predict that, when averaging their seven forecasts, President George W. Bush will garner 53.8% of the two-party popular vote in the 2004 presidential election. Six of the seven forecasts predict a Bush victory, while one predicts a narrow Kerry victory."

The biggest caveat to these studies is that they are predicting each candidates' share of the national vote and not the electoral votes.










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