Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 25, 2004

Political Scientists Say Bush Will Win

"Presidential election forecasting models developed by political scientists predict a Bush victory in the hotly contested 2004 presidential election," according to the latest issue of PS: Political Science and Politics.

"Nine distinguished and nonpartisan political scientists predict that, when averaging their seven forecasts, President George W. Bush will garner 53.8% of the two-party popular vote in the 2004 presidential election. Six of the seven forecasts predict a Bush victory, while one predicts a narrow Kerry victory."

The biggest caveat to these studies is that they are predicting each candidates' share of the national vote and not the electoral votes.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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