Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

November 01, 2004

It's Dead Even

"It is rare for the voter trend to remain so murky by the Sunday before a presidential election," the New York Times reports. "But this hard-fought contest has proved unusually resistant to prediction."

Meanwhile, the Washington Post notes "state polls offered few clues to the outcome, with Ohio and Florida still the most significant and hotly contested states."

The final national polls all show the presidential race within the margin of error:

• CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Bush leading 49% to 47% -- "a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points." In addition, they are "evenly split among likely voters in six major battleground states."
• Fox News has Kerry ahead 47% to 45%.
• Pew Research Center has Bush ahead 48% to 45%.
• NBC News/Wall Street Journal has Bush ahead 48% to 47%.
• CBS News/New York Times has Bush ahead 49% to 46%.
• Marist College has Kerry ahead 49% to 48%.
• Democracy Corps has Kerry ahead 48% to 47%.
• George Washington University has Bush ahead 49% to 45%.
• American Research Group has Kerry leading 49% to 48%.

The tracking polls also show a dead heat:

• Zogby/Retuers: Tied at 48%.
• Fox News: Kerry leads 47% to 46%.
• ABC News/Washington Post: Tied at 48%
• Rasmussen: Bush leads 48% to 47%.

The electoral vote tallies also show a very close race; in many cases, just one state could tip the balance to either candidate.

• Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 298, Bush 231
• National Journal: Bush 217, Kerry 184 with 137 tied.
• Election Projection: Bush 286, Kerry 252
• Ed Fitzgerald: Bush 255-263, Kerry 246-258

  
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Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

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