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November 01, 2004


Weather Forecast

It's all about turnout and weather affects turnout. So here are the forecasts for the key battleground states we identified yesterday:
  • Florida: Showers in the panhandle region, cloudy elsewhere.
  • Ohio: Thunderstorms and rain across the state.
  • Pennsylvania: Showers across most of the state.
  • Wisconsin: Partly to mostly cloudy, possible showers in the morning.
  • Minnesota: Sunny to partly cloudy.
  • Iowa: Mostly clear.
  • New Mexico: Partly cloudy.
  • Nevada: Sunny.
AccuWeather notes "the best example of weather potentially affecting an election was the extremely close presidential vote of 1948, when Democrat Harry S. Truman won the presidency over Republican Thomas Dewey. Weather was a factor in two especially close states that were won by Truman, Illinois and California. A slight shift in vote in these states would have awarded the election to Dewey."

Intellicast has another good piece on weather's historical election impact.












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