So Much for the 50 Percent Rule -- Political Wire

So Much for the 50 Percent Rule

As you'll recall, the 50 Percent Rule (a.k.a. the "incumbent rule") states "an incumbent who can't break 50 percent is in trouble."

Well, it seems Kerry pollster Mark Mehlman, writing in The Hill last Sunday, had a different interpretation: "We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct."

Of course, the "incumbent rule" wasn't the only failure in this election. The exit polls failed terribly and, as Mystery Pollster notes, the haggling over likely voter models was misguided. They actually performed fairly well.

November 3, 2004

Get a political job!: Check out Political Wire's extensive job board for the latest listings.

PREMIUM BLOG AD

BLOG ADS

GOOGLE ADS

The largest collection of political memorabilia in one place.

MSNBC

View All Jobs

Post a Job

TOOL BOX

Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

PRAISE

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"Taegan Goddard's Political Wire sets the gold standard for smart, timely and lively coverage of the world of campaign politics. It's the place to start and end your day.”

-- David Rapp, former editor, Congressional Quarterly

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, Instapundit

POLLS

CONTACT

Send your tips, memos, comments and suggestions to

For advertising information, please contact BlogAds at

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire