Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

November 03, 2004

So Much for the 50 Percent Rule

As you'll recall, the 50 Percent Rule (a.k.a. the "incumbent rule") states "an incumbent who can't break 50 percent is in trouble."

Well, it seems Kerry pollster Mark Mehlman, writing in The Hill last Sunday, had a different interpretation: "We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct."

Of course, the "incumbent rule" wasn't the only failure in this election. The exit polls failed terribly and, as Mystery Pollster notes, the haggling over likely voter models was misguided. They actually performed fairly well.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

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