Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

January 04, 2005

Raw Exit Poll Data Leaked

What looks like raw exit poll data has been posted by someone on a website. One document shows that as late as 7:33 pm on election night, Kerry was still leading Bush by three points.

As Mystery Pollster notes, "Each file shows cross-tabulations of the vote -- similar to those posted by the networks online -- that also includes an overall tabulation of the vote (marked 'not for on-air use'). The site lists many different files; some are for the presidential vote, some for the vote for Congress. Each file has two versions, one showing percentages tabulated horizontally, one vertically."

Mickey Kaus says the data vindicates bloggers who posted exit poll results on election day. "It wasn't the dumb bloggers who didn't understand on Nov. 2 that they were being leaked 'complex displays intended for trained statisticians'... It was that the weighted results Mitofsky's statisticians put out were full of it!"

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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