With Rep. Jim Kolbeís (R-AZ) retirement announcement last week, there are now five House Republicans retiring. In an interesting post, Jonathan Singer wondered if GOP retirements would help Democrats in the 2006 midterms as they helped Republicans in 1994. We asked Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report for his thoughts.
Political Wire: Are retirements a reliable leading indicator on forecasting a change in control of the House of Representatives?
Charlie Cook: In and of themselves, the number of retirements that a party has is not a particularly good leading indicator of seat changes. But, a large number of retirements from incumbents in vulnerable seats can result in a large number of seat changes. With over 95 percent of incumbents in a typical year getting re-elected (though for a party in a bad year it can drop as low as 80 percent), open seats in vulnerable districts increases the volatility in the House and the exposure to losses.
In looking at where open seats might turnover, experience has taught us that the first thing you look at is the voting patterns in each district, how does it vote in presidential elections compared to the rest of the country. That is the single best predictor of potential competitiveness. Then look at the quality of candidates for each side, the fundraising (and fundraising potential), the quality of the campaigns being run (professionalism, general competance) and finally, are there any unusual circumstances in that state or district, or with the candidates, that might alter the natural tilt of the district and likely direction the race will go.
Right now, there are 14 open Republican seats (versus seven for Democrats), nine caused by members running for Senate or governor (six for Dems), five retirements. But of the 14 Republican retirements, four are in extraordinarily Republican districts: ID-01 (Butch Otter), NE-03 (Tom Osborne), OH-04 (Mike Oxley) and OK-05 (Ernest Istook). While you shouldn't immediately dismiss any open seat (particularly one this year in Ohio, given the scandal problems that Republicans are having there), when you look at presidential results in these districts, they are extremely difficult districts for Democrats to win, each one tends to vote ten points or more Republican than the country as a whole. It takes a pretty unusual set of circumstances for the opposition party to pick one off. Only six Democrats in the whole House represent double-digit Republican districts.
Three more of these Republican open seats are in pretty heavily tilted GOP districts, CA-50 (Duke Cunningham), MN-06 (Mark Kennedy) and NV-02 (Jim Gibbons). With the right candidates and in a good year, these can be playable but not easy.
Five more of these GOP open seats tilt Republican but are in the range of seats where turnover tends to happen: AZ-08 (Jim Kolbe), FL-09 (Mike Biliarakis), FL-13 (Katherine Harris), IL-06 (Henry Hyde) and WI-08 (Mark Green).
Finally, two Republican open seats are in districts that tilt toward Democrats in presidential voting, CO-07 (Bob Beauprez) and IA-01 (Jim Nussle).
That's based solely on presidential voting. In our Cook Political ReportHouse race ratings, we show three of those seats AZ-08, CO-07, and IA-01 as Toss-Ups. We list MN-06 and WI-08 as Lean Republican and have five more in Likely Republican (CA-50, IL-06, FL-09, FL-13 and NV-02). Bottom line: there are five Republican-held open seats that we consider competitive today. Still, even if Democrats won all five of these districts, they would still need to knock off ten sitting Republican incumbents in order to get the 15 seats they need for control of the House. That is a tough task, even if the political winds are blowing strongly behind Democrats. In 1994, for example, almost 40 percent of the 52 seats that Republicans won that year came from open seats. If we apply that same mathematical formula for 2006, it would mean that Democrats would need to win six Republican open seats (while not losing any of their own, of course).
Whether Kolbeís announcement portends a larger trend toward retirements is yet to be seen. Obviously, the current bleak political environment and the prospect of a bruising campaign may force some entrenched Republican incumbents to reconsider another term. But, where those retirements come from is still not clear. Of the ten House chairmen who must step down at the end of the current Congress because of term limits, two -- Jim Nussle and Mike Oxley -- have already announced they were leaving the House at the end of their current term. Of the remaining eight Chairmen, the only other particularly troubling retirement for Republicans would be House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert. His upstate New York district has a very similar political profile to that of Kolbeís. Also helping Republicans is the fact that there just arenít that many districts that are in the ìwrongî hands. Of the 232 Republicans in Congress, only 18 sit in districts that were won by Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. This means, of course, that there may be more Republican retirements, but they could be in districts where Democrats will still have an uphill battle.
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