Bush Gains Haven't Helped Republicans

December 23, 2005

Bush Gains Haven't Helped Republicans

A summary of the latest NPR poll: "Clearly, the president has achieved an improvement in his job approval. The NPR survey shows him with 44 percent approval, which is just one point above the average of the public polls conducted over the last two weeks. This represents a 5-point improvement from his average for November. Bushís improvement comes from an improvement in the economy."

"Those gains are real but have not budged the structure underlying the 2006 election. They have not translated into improvements for the Republicans, particularly in the race for Congress. They have not altered judgments about whether the Iraq war was worth it or a mistake, and they have not given the Republicans standing on the economy or national priorities. Frankly, a good 60 percent of American voters at the close of 2005, according to the NPR poll, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction."

Key finding: "Swing voters are turning to the Democrats in very large numbers... Independents vote Democratic by 17 points ñ double the margin for the electorate as a whole. It is hard to imagine how one overcomes that big a swing to the Democrats, particularly if Democrats are also doing better in the world of base politics."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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December 23, 2005