Note to Readers: With this piece, Political Wire welcomes guest contributor Stuart Rothenberg, the editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a biweekly, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial elections.
While Democrats are poised to make gains in the fight for the House, recent history suggests that the party's prospects are limited currently by the paucity of Republican open seats. Only three GOP opens are very competitive -- Iowa 1, Colorado 7 and Arizona 8 -- but others could develop.
The scandal involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff obviously adds to the potential for more open seats (and a partisan wave), particularly if the ethics issue is seen by voters primarily in partisan terms. Fallout from the scandal ñ and talk about the Republicans possibly losing their majority -- could encourage some GOP incumbents to retire, putting more seats into play and creating a self-fulfilling prophesy.
The special election in California's 50th Congressional District is an initial early test of whether a wave is building. A Democratic victory would seem to put into play a number of other GOP-leaning open seats, including Florida 9 (Bilirakis), Florida 13 (Harris), Minnesota 6 (Kennedy), Nevada 2 (Gibbons) and Wisconsin 8 (Green), where President Bush performed similarly in 2004.
Finally, handicappers are keeping their eyes on a number of senior Republicans in politically marginal districts who have been mentioned recently as potential retirees, including Florida's Bill Young, Ohio's Ralph Regula and New York's Sherwood Boehlert. At the end of the day, of course, all of those senior Republicans may run for reelection.
