Guest contributor Dan Conley says last night's results should make almost everyone a little nervous.
Yesterday's Illinois primary confirmed that this is going to be a very strange, highly unpredictable election year in the Land of Lincoln.
In the gubernatorial campaign, both front-runners were bloodied in yesterday's races. Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), running against a little known, poorly funded opponent with no campaign organization, won by a relatively pathetic 70 to 30 margin. That's a heavy protest vote against Blagojevich from his own party, signaling a tough race ahead. But his opponent, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R), couldn't even top the 40 percent mark despite being the highest elected, best funded Republican in the state. Three conservative challengers rolled up 62 percent of the vote, which signals a difficult get-out-the-vote campaign ahead for the pro-choice Topinka. The difficult decision ahead for Topinka is whether to target the 30 percent of Democrats disgruntled with their nominee or the hard-core conservatives who could sit this race out.
Congressional races look just as muddy. In the Eighth District, first term Democrat Melissa Bean has been basically disowed by the netroots left for cozying up to President Bush on Social Security reform and supporting his bankruptcy bill. She'll face off against David McSweeney, who won a nasty Republican primary against Kathy Salvi, who claimed McSweeney is a pathological tax hiker.
Democrats think they have a shot at taking the Sixth District, where Henry Hyde is retiring. But again, the netroots left has a problem with the nominee ≠ preferring close second place finisher Christine Cegelis to nominee Tammy Duckworth. Cegelis showed impressive organizational skills in nearly pulling off the race and Duckworth will need her full support to have any shot against state Sen. Peter Roskam ≠but the netroots aren't giving it a rest. Chris Bowers of MyDD suggested last night that the Duckworth campaign pay for a primary recount as a way of buying off Cegelis's support, which has to rank as the wackiest political idea of the day.
Yesterday's results did establish one clear winner: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). State Treasurer candidate Alexi Giannoulias ran in heavy rotation campaign ads with nothing more than Obama speaking his endorsement for 30 seconds. Giannoulias won the primary overwhelmingly ≠ and statewide Democrats today are probably lighting up Sen. Obamaπs phone lines with requests for similar ads this fall for their candidates.
-- Dan Conley is a former speechwriter to Virginia Gov. L Douglas Wilder (D) and Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley (D).
March 22, 2006
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