April 11, 2006
The latest
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll shows "that the dismal numbers for President Bush and national Republicans have not only jelled, but hardened."
Key findings:
- President Bush's approval rate is now 37%, down three points from the previous month.
- In the generic congressional ballot, Democrats beat Republicans 46% to 36%.
- The approval rate for congressional Republicans is now just 38%.
- In a 2008 presidential matchup, John McCain beats Hillary Clinton, 44% to 39%.
For results of the special election in California's 50th congressional district, check the
official returns as soon as the polls close at 8:00 pm PT (or 11:00 pm ET).
For added commentary and results, check our partner site
CQ Politics. Another good spot is the
San Diego Politics Blog.
"It was an enormous mistake for us to try to occupy that country after June of 2003."
-- Newt Gingrich, quoted by the
Sioux Falls Argus Leader, saying the U.S. should pull out of Iraq.
In Michigan, the latest
EPIC/MRA poll shows Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and rival Dick DeVos (R) tied at 43% among likely voters.
Approximately 37% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, compared to 34% who call themselves Republicans, according to a recent
Rasmussen Reports poll.
The poll showed that ìDemocrats have some gained ground since Election 2004î when they enjoyed a ìone-and-a-half percentage point advantage in allegiance. That shrunk to less than a point in early 2005 and has grown to nearly 3 points today.î
Zogby Interactive: "An overwhelming majority of Americans -- 79% -- said they are skeptical the President and Congress will find a good solution to the immigration problem. Democrats and political independents were somewhat more skeptical than Republicans, the survey shows. While 88% of Democrats and 85% of independents said it is unlikely a solution will be found, 66% of Republicans agreed."
"The issue has boiled to the surface across America as Congress considers legislation, protestors take to the streets in cities across the nation, and as political campaigns get underway for the 2006 midterm congressional elections."
Update: The latest
Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 37% of Americans "now trust Republicans more than Democrats on the issue of immigration. Just 31% trust the Democrats more."
A new
Gallup poll "finds that most Americans are critical of President Bush's actions in the Plame/CIA leak scandal, but only one in four is following the matter closely."
"Overall, 63% of Americans believe Bush did something either illegal (21%) or unethical (42%), while 28% say he did nothing wrong."
Meanwhile, the poll found Bush's approval rating remains unchanged at 37%.
"Key figures in a phone-jamming scheme designed to keep New Hampshire Democrats from voting in 2002 had regular contact with the White House and Republican Party as the plan was unfolding, phone records introduced in criminal court show," reports the
Associated Press.
"The records show that Bush campaign operative James Tobin, who recently was convicted in the case, made two dozen calls to the White House within a three-day period around Election Day 2002 -- as the phone jamming operation was finalized, carried out and then abruptly shut down."
Meanwhile,
MyDD notes that this could turn into ìperhaps the most damaging scandal of all.î
In the prelude to what is expected to be a run for the White House in 2008, the
Christian Science Monitor notes that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) ìis no longer the outsider, nipping at the heels of his party's anointed presidential successor. He's the main show.î
However, the question remains. ìCan he maintain his image as a straight-talking maverick, with broad appeal to independents and some Democrats, even as he reaches out to religious conservatives and raises hackles on both the left and right with moves that his critics call ëunprincipledí?î
ìForty-two states project to end this fiscal year with a surplus totaling $28.9 billion, making it easier to balance budgets and reinvest in programs cut during the fiscal downturn in the first half of this decade,î reports
Stateline.org.
ìAfter weathering years of budget shortfalls between fiscal years 2001 and 2005 when states fell more than $265 billion in the red, state revenues soared beyond expectations in 38 states this fiscal year.î
Guest contributor Dotty Lynch gives us a first look at Harvard's Institute of Politics 2006 spring survey of college students.
Religion is important in the lives of college students, but Republicans and Democrats may never agree on the role of religion in politics today. Seven in ten college students today say religion is important or very important in their lives. Whatís more, a quarter of students (25%) say they have become more spiritual since entering college, as opposed to only seven percen(7%) who say they have become less spiritual. However, they are sharply divided along party lines as to religionís role in politics: only twenty-one percent (21%) of self-identifying Democrats say they want to hear politicians talk about religion, while more than two and a half times as many Republicans (56%) say the same. Sixty-two percent (62%) of college Republicans say that religion is losing its influence on American life and by a seven to one margin believe that is a ìbad thing.î Fifty-four percent (54%) of college Democrats say that religion is increasing its influence and by a two to one margin believe that is a ìbad thing.î
Morality is playing a strong role in studentsí political views. College students believe many issues at the forefront of political debate today are closely linked to morality. Not surprisingly, a majority of students agree somewhat or strongly that hot-button issues like abortion policy (61%), stem cell research (51%), and gay marriage (50%) are questions of morality; but a full fifty percent (50%) of college students also say the governmentís response to Hurricane Katrina was a question of morality. Roughly four in ten Democrats and Republicans agree education policy (45% D, 38% R) and Iraq War Policy (39% D, 44% R) are questions of morality. However, Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans (52% D, 35% R) in believing healthcare policy is a question of morality and twice as many Democrats as Republicans say the same about the minimum wage (34% D, 17% R).
Potential 2008 Clinton-McCain presidential matchup is a dead heat on campuses. If the 2008 presidential elections were held today and the Democratic and Republican candidates for President were U.S. Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we would see a dead heat on college campuses. Students give each candidate forty percent (40%), while most national polls of the general public give Senator McCain a near ten point advantage.
--
Dotty Lynch is a fellow at Harvard's Institute of Politics and a consultant with CBS News. She also writes the
Political Points column on CBS News.com.
With a special election in California today, I asked Congressional Quarterly's Greg Giroux to give us his thoughts on what to watch as results come in.
There is a special House election in California's 50th District, a Republican-leaning area in and around San Diego where Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned in December after pleading guilty to charges of accepting bribes from defense contractors. Eighteen candidates -- 14 Republicans, two Democrats and two other candidates -- qualified for the single-ballot, all-party contest, which requires a majority vote to win outright. Otherwise, the top vote-getters from each party advance to a runoff election on June 6. No candidate is expected to win a majority in today's balloting, though Democrat Francine Busby, an educator who lost to Cunningham in 2004, almost certainly will finish first. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign organization, is airing television advertisements attacking Busby. It is unclear which Republican will finish second overall to Busby and earn the GOP berth in the June 6 election. The huge GOP field includes current and former officeholders such as former Rep. Brian Bilbray (1995-2001), former state Rep. Howard Kaloogian, state Sen. Bill Morrow and former Del Mar mayor Richard Earnest. Wealthy businessman Eric Roach, Alan Uke and Bill Hauf have spent heavily from their own pockets.
-- Greg Giroux is a senior writer at
Congressional Quarterly.
"I guess it's the most wide-open race ever. Oh, it can't be ever. Ever is too long. But in a long time."
-- President Bush, quoted by the
AP, on the 2008 presidential race. He also said he was "glad" Vice President Cheney wasn't running.
Washington Whispers: "If the path to the White House is paved with money and political favors, then 2004 Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry is on the fast track to repeat in 2008. We hear that his political action committee, Keeping America's Promise, will soon report raising $1.1 million from 11,000 donors in the past three months. And Kerry will reveal that he gave over 60 percent of that to Democratic congressional candidates."
"I cut my own grass, yes, yes."
-- Sen. George Allen (R-VA), quoted by
U.S. News and World Report, adding that he "uses a John Deere 155 lawn tractor on his acre while listening to NASCAR with earphones."
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