Races to Watch: Chuck Todd -- Political Wire

Races to Watch: Chuck Todd

Political Wire asked Chuck Todd, Editor of The Hotline, which races he thought would serve as "bellwethers" for Election Night.

It depends on your definition of "bellwether."

A bellwether for a Democratic wave is KY-3, a non-targeted race by Democrats that's close. If Democrats win here, they are winning 35+ seats.

A bellwether for Republicans keeping the House is FL-22, a heavy Democratic area in a GOP-leaning state.

A bellwether for estimating Republican base turnout is OH-1. Democrats probably can't win unless GOP base turnout dips.

There are two ways to look at the bellwethers for the Senate: In Missouri and Virginia, how blue do the blue areas of the two states get? Or use Montana and Rhode Island; the strongest of the embattled GOP incumbents are Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI): if the Republicans keep one, they keep the Senate.

October 30, 2006

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Taegan D. Goddard is the creator of Political Wire, a political column updated around the clock with the most interesting news, buzz and commentary.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

This is a personal site and does not necessarily reflect the views of any company, political campaign or advocacy group.

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