Political Wire asked Greg Giroux, a senior writer at Congressional Quarterly, which races he thought would serve as "bellwethers" for Election Night.
There are quite a few that could be described as bellwether contests. But it might be helpful to note the key contests in states where the polling stations close early (Kentucky and Indiana at 6 pm). Those returns might foreshadow how the rest of the evening will go.
There are at least six contests -- all being defended by Republican incumbents -- in those two states that merit close watching: KY-2 (Rep. Ron Lewis vs. state Rep. Mike Weaver); KY-3 (Rep. Anne M. Northup vs. alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth); KY-4 (Rep. Geoff Davis vs. former Rep. Ken Lucas in a rematch of their 2002 race); IN-2 (Rep. Chris Chocola vs. lawyer, '04 nominee Joe Donnelly); IN-8 (Rep. John Hostettler vs. county sheriff Brad Ellsworth); and IN-9 (Rep. Mike Sodrel vs. former Rep. Baron Hill in a rematch of their close 2004 race). The Republicans in Indiana by and large are in a more perilous political condition worse shape than their counterparts in Kentucky, but we consider all six contests as competitive. (We're also keeping an eye on the IN-3 contest between Rep. Mark Souder and Ft. Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst).
A few weeks ago, NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds told reporters that he expected Northup to win -- but that he would be in for a long night if she lost.
October 30, 2006
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