Races to Watch: David Johnson

Political Wire asked pollster David Johnson, Founder and CEO of Strategic Vision, which races he thought would serve as "bellwethers" for Election Night.

There are several races to watch that will determine control of Congress and also in the Governor's races that will determine what type of year it will be for Republicans.

For the House, the key races to watch are going to be IN-2, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, FL-16, FL-22, FL-13 for Republicans. These races should be called early and could set a trend. If Republicans can hold two of the three in Connecticut and two of the three in Florida, it means that the losses may not be as great as feared although control of the House could still go to Democrats. For Democrats, the key races to watch are GA-8 and GA-12. If these seats flip, we could be in for a longer night than expected.

In the Senate, the key races will be Missouri, Tennessee, and Montana. They will determine control.

For the governorships, Florida, will be a key state to watch. The race has been tightening and if goes Democratic, it could mean a very good night for Democrats and could mean Democrats will pick up all of Florida's competitive seats.


October 31, 2006




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