Political Wire asked Dotty Lynch, CBS News Political Consultant, which races she thought would serve as "bellwethers" for Election Night.
There is no real bellwether, but my rule of thumb is to look at Republican incumbents in traditionally Republican states and districts to see how they are performing compared to last time for them and the Presidential vote in their states or districts.
Obviously we will look at the early poll closing states: Ohio (especially the margin in Ohio) and Virginia will tell us a lot about who will control the Senate.
In the House, there's KY-2 and three districts in Indiana. If IN-2 goes Democratic, Democrats will pick up seats, if IN-8 and IN-9 do the same, they will have a very good night. The Ohio competitive seats may be atypical because of the state's uniquely poisonous atmostphere, but OH-1 and OH-15 are my keys. Then at 8pm we have VA-2, CT-2, CT-4 and CT-5 in that order.
October 31, 2006
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