It Looks Like 1994

The latest strategy memo from Stan Greenberg and James Carville:
"It is very hard to look at the most recent Democracy Corps survey in the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts finished last night and not conclude that we are headed toward a 1994 election -- with the Democratic majority approaching that of the Gingrich Congress. The named Democratic vote for Congress has moved up from a 3-point lead to 7-point margin since Sunday, with the named Democrat for the first time moving over 50 percent (51 to 44 percent). For the first time, the Democratic candidate is ahead on average in the bottom tier of least competitive races."
Other findings:
  • The Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot in these 50 districts has moved up to 11 points -- up 3 points from Sunday and another 3 points from the week before.
  • The gap in interest in the election (those ranking their interest on 1-to-10 point scale) between Democratic and Republican voters has grown from 7 to 14 this week.


November 2, 2006




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