Political Wire asked Walter Shapiro, Salon's Washington bureau chief, which races he thought would serve as "bellwethers" for Election Night.
On Election Night, I will first be looking at the dramatic, close elections involving national figures. In New York, can Hillary Clinton hold onto her Senate seat against the unswerving opposition of one third of the electorate? In Indiana, will a significant write-in vote (maybe as high as 2 percent) develop against Dick Lugar, who is running unopposed. And in the Texas governor's race, can Scott McClellan's mom (Carole Strayhorn) keep her lead for third place against a last-minute charge by Kinky Friedman?
Then, and only then, I will try to divine the national mood by doing something self-indulgent -- tracking the House races that I have written about. (There is a method here: I can make more sense of vote totals from places I understand than, say, ID-1). My barometer for the Northeast remains CT-5. The battle between Nancy Johnson and Chris Murphy will be a measure of what happens when an incumbent who knows that she is trouble (Johnson first went negative in April) meets an aggressive opponent in a bad environment for Republicans. My Northeast-turning-blue theory will also be tested in NY-20. If John Sweeney loses in that rare Northeastern district that Bush carried with 54% in 2004, it will another sign of a one-party Democratic region.
In the Ohio River Valley, the first contest I will look at is IN-9 (Mike Sodrel vs Baron Hill), since rematches are instructive because both candidates tend to run smart campaigns. (I noticed that Hill was among the first Democrats to attack John Kerry). I also want to see if the Democratic tidal wave lapping the banks of the Ohio River brings in the real flotsam like Victoria Wulsin (OH-2) and Bob Shamansky (OH-12). And I will be again awed by Ken Mehlman's 72-hour program if either Steve Chabot (OH-1) or Deb Pryce (OH-15) return to Congress.
As for the Senate, I will be following New Jersey (someday the Democrats will pay a price for running a corrupt state), Tennessee (it will be a corker if Ford wins) and Missouri (another test of two smart campaigns colliding). And, finally, since I will be spending an awful lot of time there in the run-up to the caucuses, I want to know if the 2008 presidentials will be fawning over Iowa Gov. Chet Culver or upset victor Jim Nussle.
November 2, 2006
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