"Most of the House seats that the Republicans have all but conceded were not on analysts' radar screens at the beginning of the election cycle. For example, Democrats didn't even field a candidate to challenge Rep. Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania in 2002 and 2004. They finally did this year -- and have seen their chances of defeating Sherwood skyrocket, because publicity over an extramarital affair in which his mistress accused him of trying to choke her has left the incumbent trailing badly in polls for the last several months.But the authors also note these seats may be the toughest to keep even if they flip this year.
"In recent cycles, Republicans in conservative districts could count on winning even if they ran weak campaigns. That was certainly the case with Reps. John Hostettler of Indiana and Charles Taylor of North Carolina. This year, both are in serious trouble because they can't rely on their party label to push them over the top."
"Republican fumbles and stumbles in red districts could cost the party control of the House this year, but much of that turf should be recoverable in 2008. GOP losses in moderate suburbs are more likely to be permanent -- or what passes for permanent in politics."
November 3, 2006
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Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.
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