Republicans are likely to retain the Mississippi Congressional District being left open because of the retirement of Rep. Chip Pickering, but that doesnít mean that Mississippi 3rd District voters won't see a competitive campaign.
Contrary to initial reports, Pickering will not resign his seat. Instead, he will serve out his term but not seek reelection. GOP insiders describe the district as overflowing with potential Republican candidates and expect a multi-candidate primary.
Atop the list are two statewide names: Tate Reeves and Amy Tuck.
Reeves is Mississippi's 32 year old state Treasurer, the first Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. Elected in 2003, he is a strong fundraiser and has been a high profile state official. While some insiders have already assumed that he will be a candidate for governor in 2011, the Congressional open seat could have appeal for him.
Tuck, 44, is finishing her second term as Lieutenant Governor. She is term limited and cannot seek reelection. A former Democrat who switched to the GOP in 2002, she is widely regarded as a strong campaigner. "Nobody works the crowd better than Amy," says one savvy Republican about the woman everyone describes as "a political animal."
But Tuck's Southern populism, which includes support for extensive government spending on public works projects, means that she has a problem with some base Republicans, and she hasnít always agreed with Governor Haley Barbour (R).
Other Republicans who are being mentioned include state Senator Charlie Ross, who recently lost the GOP primary for Lieutenant Governor, state Senator Walter Michel and State Transportation Commissioner Dick Hall.
Observers say that it is unlikely that Barbour or the state party can narrow the GOP field to a single consensus candidate. "Congressional seats are lifetime appointments in Mississippi," jokes one Republican strategist who expects a number of candidates.
Pickering had expected to run for the Senate by this time, either for the seat of Sen. Trent Lott (R) or Sen. Thad Cochran (R). But Lott surprised observers by seeking reelection in 2006, and Cochran appears to be running for another term next year. That would keep Pickering in the House for an extended period, which may explain his decision.
Pickering's exit from Congress doesnít mean that he will not run for the Senate when a Mississippi Senate comes open.
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