Making Sense of the Iowa Polls

In just the last few days we've seen Iowa polls showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading (Reuters/Zogby, CNN/Opinion Research, American Research Group), John Edwards leading (McClatchy/MSNBC) and Sen. Barack Obama leading (Des Moines Register). We've even seen a poll try to allocate second choice preferences which shows Edwards as the leader (Insider Advantage).

On the Republican side, it's the same story. Mike Huckabee leads (Des Moines Register) or Mitt Romney leads (Reuters/Zogby, CNN/Opinion Research, McClatchy/MSNBC, American Research Group).

In fact, many of these polls actually show statistical ties and no clear frontrunner.

The differences between each poll come mainly from the use of different methodologies predicting who is a likely caucus participant. They may also stem from difficulties in conducting a poll during a holiday week.

The only consistent finding is that a large proportion of voters may still change their mind before Thursday.

January 1, 2008 | Related News



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