March 30, 2009


Making Sense of the NY-20 Polls

Charles Franklin wonders if it's better to gauge the state of a race based on the trends in polling data or the use of simple polling averages. In the five polls for tomorrow's special election, the trend estimates shows Scott Murphy (D) leading a very tight race. But the polling averages show Jim Tedisco ahead by a wider margin.

Bottom line: "I tend to side with experienced candidates over novices, so I'd give the benefit of the doubt to Tedisco on that score. But the trends are quite consistent and point to at least a close finish and a modest advantage for Murphy. We'll see tomorrow night."










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