Democratic Model Projects Murphy Win in NY-20

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April 01, 2009

Democratic Model Projects Murphy Win in NY-20

Democratic projections obtained by The Fix show Scott Murphy (D) beating Jim Tedisco (R) in New York's 20th district by 210 votes after all outstanding absentee and military ballots are counted.

"The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes."

However, an email from the NRCC disputes the projections noting New York has registration by party. "This allows us to see which absentee ballots are being returned by both parties. There is currently a Republican advantage among the absentee and military ballots that exceed the current Murphy lead. This is not a 'model,' but raw data."

Of course, that doesn't mean we know how they voted yet.

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April 01, 2009