Earlier Edwards Withdrawal Would Not Have Helped Clinton

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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May 11, 2009

Earlier Edwards Withdrawal Would Not Have Helped Clinton

Mark Blumenthal looks at the polling data and finds that John Edwards' presence in the 2008 Democratic presidential race actually took more votes away from Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton.

"The biggest lurch in support over the course of the two year campaign occurs for Obama just after Edwards dropped out (when pollsters stopped including his name on vote preference questions). Just before the Edwards announcement, most polls showed Obama's support in the mid-30s. Just after, his support surged the mid-40s. Over the same period, Hillary Clinton's aggregate support held mostly steady."

Blumenthal concludes that an earlier Edwards withdrawal from the race -- if the news of his marital infidelity became public -- probably would not have changed the outcome of the Democratic primary.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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May 11, 2009