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September 22, 2009


Too Early to Predict Midterms?

After predictions by Charlie Cook and others that President Obama's falling approval rate could mean a tough midterm election for Democrats, Thomas Holbrook looked at whether approval rates were good indicators of elections 14 months out.

His conclusion: "Taken together, these data show that presidential approval 14 months prior to midterm elections has some predictive capacity, though there is enough error in the predictions that you shouldn't bet the farm. Approval among independents does not really add much to the predictions generated by overall approval, and the generic ballot this far out is not very useful at all."

So while Cook is right to suggest that current conditions do not look good for Democrats, it's still way too early to make any definitive prediction.












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