October 29, 2009


Which Polls to Believe in New Jersey?

Nate Silver: "There's a rather strange split in the polls in New Jersey's gubernatorial race: those conducted by live interviewers have Jon Corzine leading by an average of 4.2 points, but those conducted via IVR (automated scripts or "robopolls") have Chris Christie leading by an average of 3.0 points. The difference is statistically significant with probability t=3.26, i.e. about a 98 percent chance that it isn't the result of chance alone."










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