Probably Still a Toss Up in NY-23

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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November 01, 2009

Probably Still a Toss Up in NY-23

With Dede Scozzafava (R) now out of the race, Charles Franklin parses the crosstabs of the most recent Siena poll and sees hope for both Bill Owens (D) and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in picking up her support.

Owens is not doing well among independents and he doesn't have the support of about 25% of Democratic voters. On the other hand, there are some serious weaknesses for Hoffman among the Scozzafava voters.

The bottom line is that the race remains an even split with Scozzafava's support most likely evenly divided between the two remaining candidates. "When we try to parse the Scozzafava voters, they mostly look like a tossup, with at most a sliver of extra support for Owens. But at most a sliver."

The Watertown Daily Times, which initially endorsed Scozzafava, has changed its endorsement to Owens.

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Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

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Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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November 01, 2009