Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

November 02, 2009

Clues from the Generic Congressional Ballot

A review of past midterm election-year data by Gallup "suggests that even early predictions can give insight into how next year's elections might go. The size of the Democratic lead among registered voters in the months ahead will be a key indicator of whether the election will be competitive. If Republicans are close to being tied or are ahead, it will suggest the possibility of a strong Republican year unless Democrats have an unusually strong and disproportionate turnout advantage."

With their most recent generic ballot showing Democrats leading Republicans by just two points, 46% to 44%, the "possibility of a strong Republican year would be consistent with history."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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