Off-year elections are a little like spring training games in baseball. They're a good chance for teams to get a look at new players and test new strategies. They're also useful in highlighting weaknesses so teams can adapt before the regular season starts. But, at the end of the day, they're not very good predictors of who will ultimately win when the more serious competition begins.
That said, the results of the surprisingly entertaining elections this year will almost certainly shape the political narrative as we head into next year's midterms. There's no avoiding it.
New York Times: "The outcome could, to a limited degree, help measure whether Mr. Obama's success last year was a phenomenon limited to him or the early signs of a long-term Democratic resurgence. And it may offer a hint of the thinking of independent voters, the real swing group in American politics, who were so critical to Mr. Obama's success and who polls suggested have been put off by Mr. Obama policies."
Associated Press: "These races are hardly bellwethers; people are voting on local issues
and personalities. Still, national forces such as the recession are
having an effect, and Obama has spent considerable time campaigning
this fall, particularly for candidates in Virginia and New Jersey."
Wall Street Journal: "Top aides to President Barack Obama are quick to cite the quirky record
of off-year elections to play down the significance of the three major
contests this Tuesday: gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey
and a special House election in upstate New York. Indeed, time and
events are likely to refashion the political landscape between now and
November 2010."
