Unlike most of President Obama's speeches, it's hard to feel positive after this one. He did not make the case for how a quick surge of
additional troops, followed by their withdrawal starting just 18 months
later, is going to dramatically change the outcome of this war.
The setting, in an auditorium of cadets at West Point, didn't work. Weak applause from the audience -- and the brief shot of a sleeping cadet -- didn't set the appropriate tone. A somber speech like this one needed to be done from the Oval Office.
Unfortunately, the speech didn't do much to change public opinion on an increasingly unpopular war. It's hard not to think this war will continue for many years to come.
Other reactions:
Andrew Sullivan: "I confess I do not feel those highest hopes. I do not share his
confidence in American military and civilian power to turn the roiling
region of Afghanistan and Pakistan into something less threatening. I
see no reason after the last eight years to see how this can happen,
even with these new resources. But if you rule out withdrawal right
away, then this seems to me to be about the smartest strategy ahead.
But I see absolutely no reason to believe that it will mean withdrawal
of any significant amount in Obama's first term."
David Kurtz: "I know many progressives are disenchanted with this decision, but I'm
struck again by how Obama is crafting a new progressive narrative for
foreign policy and national security. Not just reality-based, though it
is that. But an affirmative, positive rationale. Not a reaction to the
conservative foreign policy orthodoxy, though it certainly acknowledges
it."
John Aravosis: "I think Obama did a good job, especially for a Democrat, on a major
military speech. Democrats enter this territory with certain
disadvantages. That's why, I think, that Obama did a great job of using
the pomp and circumstance of office, as Bush and other Republicans
always do, to lend an air of dignity to the evening."
Chris Cillizza: "From a political perspective, this decision will be Obama's alone;
members of Congress will use the "defer to the commander in chief"
argument if questioned about their support in the coming election year.
While Afghanistan will certainly be on the minds of some voters in the
midterms, polling suggests that the economy remains the overriding
concern for the average American."
Nate Silver: "Politically, this seems very
risky: in the long run, there's much more downside to breaking the
promise than there would be upside to keeping it. If nothing much has
changed in Afghanistan and our troops aren't getting out 20 months
hence, we can presumably expect some major blowback, especially from
liberals -- a primary challenge from Obama's left flank would not be
entirely out of the question."
