Misery Index and the Midterms

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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December 09, 2009

Misery Index and the Midterms

Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies looks at the impact of the "misery index" -- unemployment plus inflation -- on next year's midterm elections.

"The rules are simple: of the last 15 elections, 13 were 'Change' elections in which the party that held the White House lost seats in Congress. In those "Change" elections, the average Misery Index in October going into Election Day was 10.1 and the average loss was 26 seats in the House; including, some real drubbings of more than 45 seats. The Index is at 10.02 now."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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December 09, 2009